Prediction Market Fundamentals
26 words you meet in prediction markets, each one explained plainly.
Binary Market
A binary market is a prediction market with two mutually exclusive outcomes, commonly expressed as YES and NO. For example: Will the Federal Reserv...
Complementary Outcomes
Complementary outcomes are two outcomes where one occurs if and only if the other does not, assuming the market's rules cover all possible results....
Contract Price
Contract price is the amount paid or received to trade a prediction contract. The way prices are displayed depends on the platform and market struc...
Event Contract
An event contract is a contract whose payout depends on the outcome of a specified event or condition. The market rules define what must happen for...
Hold to Resolution
Holding to resolution means keeping a prediction market position open until the market outcome is officially determined and the contract settles.
Implied Probability
Implied probability is the probability suggested by a prediction market's price under the relevant contract and payout structure. For a binary cont...
Market Close
Market close is the point at which trading in a prediction market stops according to the market or platform rules.
Market Consensus
Market consensus describes the collective view reflected by current prediction market pricing.
Market Expiry
Market expiry refers to the point or date associated with the end of a prediction market's defined trading or event period. The precise meaning can...
Market Price
Market price is the current price at which a prediction contract is trading or available to trade. In prediction markets with binary contracts whos...
Market Probability
Market probability is the probability implied or communicated by the current price of a prediction market, subject to the market's contract structure.
Market Question
The market question is the specific event or condition a prediction market asks participants to trade.
Market Repricing
Market repricing occurs when prediction market prices change as traders respond to new information, changing expectations or shifts in supply and d...
Market Resolution
Market resolution is the process of determining the official outcome of a prediction market according to its predefined rules and resolution criteria.
Market Rules
Market rules define how a prediction market operates and the conditions used to determine its outcome. They may specify dates, definitions, data so...
Multi Outcome Market
A multi outcome market offers more than two possible outcomes for the same underlying question or event. For example: Who will become the next Fede...
Mutually Exclusive Outcomes
Mutually exclusive outcomes are outcomes that cannot both occur under the market's resolution rules.
NO Contract
A NO contract represents the position that the event described by a binary prediction market will resolve NO according to the market's rules.
Outcome
An outcome is one of the possible results represented by a prediction market. In a binary market, the outcome may simply be YES or NO. Markets with...
Payout
Payout is the amount received from a prediction contract according to its settlement rules when the relevant outcome occurs.
Prediction Contract
A prediction contract is a tradable contract whose value depends on whether a specified future outcome occurs. Depending on the market structure, t...
Prediction Market
A prediction market is a market where participants trade contracts linked to the outcome of a future event. Markets can cover elections, economic d...
Prediction Market Odds
Prediction market odds describe the likelihood of an outcome as reflected by market pricing. On GnosisFi and many prediction market interfaces, thi...
Settlement Value
Settlement value is the amount assigned to a prediction contract when the market is resolved. In a common binary structure, the winning outcome set...
Trading Prediction Markets
Trading prediction markets means buying and selling positions based on how the trader expects the market's probability estimate to change or how th...
YES Contract
A YES contract represents the position that the event described by a binary prediction market will resolve YES according to the market's rules.