ToolsPrediction MarketsBet Check
What do I pay, win or lose?
See the full cost and both possible results of a Yes or No trade.
Example bet. Change anything to check your own.
The bet
Start from a live market or type your own numbers. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
Sets the platform, the price and the date it settles. Check the spread yourself on the market page.
Polymarket charges takers by group. Crypto pays the most, world events pay nothing.
What you pay per contract. 62 means 62 cents for a $1 payout.
Shares on Polymarket, contracts on Kalshi.
Gap between the best bid and the best ask on the market page.
A taker takes the price that is there now. A maker posts a price and waits.
The date the market resolves.
Your own honest number, not the market's.
Money set aside for bets.
The rule is the bet. The title is not.
For the numbers shown
You pay $51.75
$50.00 for the contracts and $1.75 in fees.
If your answer wins
$100.00 back
$48.25 profit
If your answer loses
$0 back
You lose $51.75
Before buying, read the exact rule for what counts as Yes.
Fees, odds and market rules
Result
100 Yes at 50 cents on Polymarket, as a taker
51.7%
the chance of being right you need just to break even, after the fee.
More numbers
$51.75
You pay, all in
$50.00 stake plus $1.75 fee
$100.00
You get if right
profit $48.25, 93.2%
1,165%
Per year if right
settles in 29 days
Settlement rule
Open the market and read the rule text before you bet. Same name markets settle on different sources and deadlines.
What this means
- As a maker you would pay no fee at all on Polymarket. Posting a limit order and waiting is the cheapest edge in this market.
- Crossing the spread costs about $1.00 against the middle price. That is money the other side keeps.
- On Polymarket, contracts at 50 to 60 cents paid out 62% of the time across 349 settled markets. That is 8 points more often than the price said. Measured a week before settlement, last 365 days.
Fee schedules as published in September 2026.
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How this tool works
How to read this
- 01
The price is the crowd's chance. 62 cents means the crowd says 62 in 100.
- 02
The fee and the spread push the chance you need above the price. That gap is the house edge you pay.
- 03
The yearly rate only counts if you are right. Compare it with a Treasury bill, then remember the Treasury bill does not go to zero.
- 04
A bet is only an edge when your honest chance beats the break even line, and only over many bets.
- 05
Pick a market from the list and the panel walks its order book: what your size would average, next to the price on the screen. The same number on a deep market, far apart on a thin one.
Educational only. It describes the bet; it never tells you to place it.
How the calculation works
- 01Cost = contracts times price, plus the platform's fee, plus the spread you cross. Payout = contracts times $1 if right.
- 02Break even chance = all in cost divided by payout. Yearly rate = return divided by days to settle, times 365.
- 03Edge = your chance minus the break even chance. Kelly share = (your chance minus price) divided by (1 minus price), a formula only.
- 04For a market picked from the list, the order book is walked from the best price up until the order is filled, and the average of what was paid is the average price. The difference from the best price is the slippage.
Data sources and update times
- Fee schedules
- Polymarket taker fees by category, Kalshi's fee formula, typed into the code
- Checked on the date shown on the page
- Order books
- The resting orders on the market you picked, from Kalshi or Polymarket
- Read when you change the market, the side or the size
- GnosisFi pulse
- The onchain Treasury bill rate used for the comparison line
- Every 10 minutes