Prediction MarketsBet Check
Bet Check
See what a Yes or No bet really costs, pays and needs before you place it.
Pick a platform, a price and a size. You get the fee, the spread cost, the chance you need to break even, and the payout if you are right. You get the yearly rate next to a T-bill. Add your own chance and it shows your edge and a careful bet size. It reads the settlement rule in plain words and warns you off the short price windows built for bots. Free, no sign-in.
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The bet
Start from a live market or type your own numbers. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
Fills the platform, the price and the settle date. Check the spread yourself on the market page.
Polymarket charges takers by group. Crypto pays the most, world events pay nothing.
What you pay per contract. 62 means 62 cents for a $1 payout.
Shares on Polymarket, contracts on Kalshi.
Gap between the best bid and the best ask on the market page.
A taker hits the price now. A maker posts a price and waits.
The date the market resolves.
Your own honest number, not the market's.
Money set aside for bets.
The rule is the bet. The title is not.
What this bet really does
100 Yes at 50 cents on Polymarket, as a taker.
$51.75
You pay, all in
$50.00 stake + $1.75 fee
51.7%
Chance you need
Break even, after the fee
$100.00
You get if right
Profit $48.25, 93.2%
1,136%
Per year if right
Settles in 30 days
- As a maker you would pay no fee at all on Polymarket. Posting a limit order and waiting is the cheapest edge in this market.
- Crossing the spread costs about $1.00 against the middle price. That is money the other side keeps.
- On Polymarket, contracts at 50 to 60 cents paid out 61% of the time across 340 settled markets. That is 7 points more often than the price said, so those bets were a little cheap. Measured a week before settlement, last 365 days.
Settlement rule
Open the market and read the rule text before you bet. Same-name markets settle on different sources and deadlines.
Fee schedules as published in September 2026.
How to read this
- 01
The price is the crowd's chance. 62 cents means the crowd says 62 in 100.
- 02
The fee and the spread push the chance you need above the price. That gap is the house edge you pay.
- 03
The yearly rate only counts if you are right. Compare it with a T-bill, then remember the T-bill does not go to zero.
- 04
A bet is only an edge when your honest chance beats the break-even line, and only over many bets.
Educational only. It describes the bet; it never tells you to place it.