Prediction markets

What the world is betting on, in odds you can read.

Polymarket and Kalshi, refreshed every 10 minutes from our own snapshots. Sports left out on purpose. The biggest markets, the biggest odds moves, what settles this week, and how worried the macro crowd is. It describes; it never tells you what to do.

Right nowloading

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The markets that matter

By theme. Each row links to its own page with the 24-hour odds line and a share button.

Reading the prediction markets…

This week: what can move the odds

Scheduled reports and decisions, what settles, and what is developing now.

developing now
Worlddeveloping
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?
The crowd moved 62 points in a day, to 79%. Odds moving this fast are news you can read as a number.
Open on PolymarketPost on X
79%
chance, say traders
developing now
Worlddeveloping
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?
The crowd moved 13 points in a day, to 69%. Odds moving this fast are news you can read as a number.
Open on PolymarketPost on X
69%
chance, say traders
Fri, Sep 11, 8:30 AM ET
Inflation
CPI report
The monthly price report. It moves rates, the dollar, stocks and crypto in the first minutes.
Traders say 63% on: CPI print: Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in August 2026, up 11 in a day.
Going in: perp risk Low, $1.08B within 5% of being liquidated, typical funding +10.9% a year.
BTC on Hyperliquid BTC on Binance ETH on Hyperliquid Open on KalshiPost on X
63%
chance, say traders
Sat, Sep 12, 8:00 PM ET
Worldsettles
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
This market settles Sat, Sep 12, 8:00 PM ET. Traders say 79% right now.
Open on PolymarketPost on X
79%
chance, say traders
Wed, Sep 16, 2:00 PM ET
Rates
Fed decision
The Fed sets the interest rate and says what comes next. The single biggest scheduled move of the month.
Traders say 54% on: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?, up 2 in a day.
Going in: perp risk Low, $1.08B within 5% of being liquidated, typical funding +10.9% a year.
BTC on Hyperliquid BTC on Binance ETH on Hyperliquid SP500 on Hyperliquid Open on PolymarketPost on X
54%
chance, say traders

Macro worry

Recession odds, rate-hike odds, a hot inflation print, world tension.

Watchful

A world market moved 66 points today. 54% on the Fed raising rates next.

Recession odds
Traders put 4% on a recession.
4
Rate-hike odds
54% on the Fed raising rates next.
54
Hot inflation print
49% on inflation coming in above the middle strike.
49
World tension
A world market moved 66 points today.
100

The Crowd Gauge for perps, and how both are made

How to read odds

01
What does 63% mean?
Traders are paying prices that add up to a 63% chance. It is the crowd's opinion, updated by money, not a forecast from us.
02
Why do odds move?
News, a data print, or a big order. A move of 10 points in a day is news you can read as a number.
03
Why are sports left out?
They dominate volume and say nothing about markets. This page keeps the odds a trader can use.

Odds: Polymarket and Kalshi public feeds, snapshotted every 10 minutes. Educational only. Not financial advice. Odds are the crowd's opinion, not facts.