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Prediction Markets

See what the world is betting on.

Follow live prediction market odds from Polymarket and Kalshi, see which markets are moving, what is settling soon, and what events could shift the odds next. Use our free tools to compare markets, research a bet before you place it, and decide whether the odds are right.Focused on markets, economics, crypto and world events.

See the live odds

The biggest and most traded today.

Use our prediction tools

Check a bet before you place it.

See the macro dials

What the world is worried about.

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Explore all prediction markets

Browse the biggest and most active markets.

Set a market alert

Get an email when the odds cross a level you set.

Worry Gauge

Based on live odds across the prediction markets we track.

15

Calm

Post on X

Trading ease

Could you get in and out of these markets right now?

85

Easy to trade

Post on X
Market outlook

What risks are prediction markets pricing?

See what prediction markets are pricing across recession, interest rates, inflation and major world events.

The middle market scores 85 of 100 on how easy it is to get in and out. Half the markets trade at 1 cents between the two sides or tighter.

Read from how much money is trading, how far apart the two sides are, how long until the market settles, and whether the rule is plain. Volume on its own can look busy while the book is thin.

The score is the average of the recession and rate hike odds above. World event markets are shown separately and do not affect the score, because a single market can move sharply as it approaches settlement.

See what's driving the score

How the score is calculated

  1. Recession odds the chance the market puts on a recession being called

    The market currently puts the chance of a recession at 22%..

    22 of 100100% of score

  2. Rate hike odds the chance the market puts on the Fed raising rates next

    The market currently puts the chance of the Fed raising rates next at 8%..

    8 of 100100% of score

Also worth watching

  1. World markets Biggest world market move today

    The biggest move today was 17 points, on NATO x Russia military clash by December 31.

What would you like to explore?

Browse live odds, find markets settling soon or use our free tools to research a trade before placing it.

Live markets:
See current odds, price moves and the most traded markets.
Settling soon:
Find markets due to settle within the next seven days.
Free tools:
Compare markets, check payouts and research the odds.
Markets

The markets that matter.

Explore the biggest prediction markets across the economy, crypto, politics, world events, business and technology. See the current odds, trading volume and which markets are attracting the most attention.

Browse by theme or start with the most traded markets right now.

Open any market to see its 24 hour odds chart and market details.

Reading the prediction markets.

Reading the prediction markets.

Tools

Check the market before you bet.

Five free tools to help you research a prediction market before you bet. Check the odds, compare markets, understand the data and get a clearer picture of what you are betting on.

  1. Bet Check

    See what a Yes or No bet costs, what it pays and the probability you need to break even before you place it.

    Start hereNew here1 min

  2. News Day Risk Check

    See what markets expect before the Fed, jobs and inflation reports, how BTC and ETH reacted to previous releases, and how traders are positioned going in.

    Any level3 min

  3. Market Picker

    Compare prediction markets by trading volume, spread, time to settlement and how clearly each bet defines what counts as a win.

    Any level2 min

  4. Odds Gap Finder

    Compare prediction market odds with independent forecasts and find where the biggest gaps appear.

    Any level2 min

  5. Odds Report Card

    See how accurate prediction market prices have been across a year of settled markets.

    Any level3 min

How to read prediction market odds

  1. 01

    What does 63% mean?

    A 63% price means traders are currently pricing the outcome at roughly a 63% chance of happening. In prediction markets, prices move between 0% and 100% as traders buy and sell. The higher the percentage, the more likely the market currently thinks the outcome is. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

  2. 02

    Why do odds move?

    Prediction market odds are constantly changing as traders buy and sell based on new information. News, economic data, announcements and changing expectations can push the probability higher or lower. As the market view changes, so does the price.

  3. 03

    Why don't we show sports?

    Prediction markets cover far more than sport. You can trade on elections, economic decisions, crypto, business, financial markets and major world events. Sports are a major part of the industry, but GnosisFi focuses on the markets we believe are most useful for investors and traders.

Educational only. Not financial advice. Market probabilities reflect trader expectations, not certainties.

Prediction Markets terms explained

Not sure what a term means? Choose one below for a plain English explanation.

Explore the full glossary