Prediction MarketsBefore the News
Before the News
See what the crowd expects and how big the usual move is, before the Fed, jobs and inflation news.
Three days a month move everything at once: the Fed decision, the jobs report and the inflation report. This page gets you ready the night before. It shows what the bettors expect the number to be, on Kalshi and Polymarket. It shows how far Bitcoin and Ether moved in the first hour on the last twelve of that day, and what open bets did after. It shows who is leaning which way going in: funding, open bets, and the piles of borrowed bets within one usual move. And it shows what a small cushion from a Yes or No contract would cost next to a trade, with the cliff it has. It describes; it never tells you what to do. Free, no sign-in.
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Fed decision: Wed, Sep 16, 2:00 PM ET
The Fed sets the interest rate and says what comes next. The single biggest scheduled move of the month.
Going in: perp risk Low, $1.41B within 5% of being liquidated, typical funding +10.9% a year.
01
What does the crowd expect?
80%
chance, say traders
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Kalshi says raise 0.25 at 80%. Polymarket says the same at 80%. The two crowds agree. No free model prices the Fed, so the second crowd is the check.
02
How big is the usual move?
1.47%
usual first hour, Bitcoin
median high-to-low range
0.70%
usual first-hour move
median, up or down
2.77%
biggest first hour
2025-03-19
33%
closed the hour up
of the last 12 days
| Day | First hour | Hour range | Four hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | +0.36% | 1.44% | -0.66% |
| 2026-06-17 | -0.91% | 1.99% | -2.81% |
| 2026-04-29 | -0.90% | 1.75% | -0.33% |
| 2026-03-18 | -0.69% | 1.49% | -0.46% |
| 2026-01-28 | -0.16% | 0.81% | -0.18% |
| 2025-12-10 | +0.48% | 1.75% | +0.00% |
| 2025-10-29 | -0.97% | 2.59% | -0.22% |
| 2025-09-17 | -0.22% | 1.39% | +0.49% |
| 2025-07-30 | -1.10% | 1.33% | -0.41% |
| 2025-06-18 | -0.70% | 1.13% | +0.70% |
| 2025-05-07 | +0.28% | 1.05% | +0.83% |
| 2025-03-19 | +1.65% | 2.77% | +1.67% |
| Day | First hour | Hour range | Four hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | +0.22% | 2.29% | -0.93% |
| 2026-06-17 | -1.06% | 2.44% | -2.81% |
| 2026-04-29 | -1.97% | 2.93% | -1.36% |
| 2026-03-18 | -1.06% | 2.02% | -0.08% |
| 2026-01-28 | +0.04% | 0.95% | +0.10% |
| 2025-12-10 | +0.26% | 2.71% | -1.02% |
| 2025-10-29 | -2.43% | 4.54% | -1.47% |
| 2025-09-17 | +0.73% | 2.76% | +2.39% |
| 2025-07-30 | -1.75% | 2.26% | -1.12% |
| 2025-06-18 | -0.85% | 1.88% | +1.27% |
| 2025-05-07 | +0.57% | 1.61% | +0.35% |
| 2025-03-19 | +0.89% | 3.43% | +0.63% |
03
Who is leaning which way going in?
Bitcoin$77,286
7%
longs pay, a year
+0.1%
open bets, four hours
risk low
$46M
longs within 1.5% below
would be closed out
$23M
shorts within 1.5% above
would be closed out
Ether$2,525
7%
longs pay, a year
+0.3%
open bets, four hours
risk low
$75M
longs within 1.5% below
would be closed out
$6M
shorts within 1.5% above
would be closed out
Piles are estimates from the Squeeze Map: where borrowed bets would be closed out if price moved there, within one usual first-hour range. Price tends to move fast through a pile.
04
What would a cushion cost?
A $10,000 long with 147 contracts that pay $1 each if Bitcoin settles below $76,000 on 2026-09-16. They cost 29 cents each, $43 in all, 0.43% of the position.
| Bitcoin at settlement | Perp alone | Contracts | Together |
|---|---|---|---|
| $75,019 (-2.9%) | -$293 | $104 | -$189 |
| $75,924 (-1.8%) | -$176 | $104 | -$72 |
| $76,076 (-1.6%) | -$157 | -$43 | -$199 |
| $76,152 (-1.5%) | -$147 | -$43 | -$189 |
| $76,719 (-0.7%) | -$73 | -$43 | -$116 |
| $77,286 (+0.0%) | $0 | -$43 | -$43 |
| $77,852 (+0.7%) | $73 | -$43 | $31 |
| $78,419 (+1.5%) | $147 | -$43 | $104 |
| $79,552 (+2.9%) | $293 | -$43 | $251 |
The contracts pay the same $147 at every price past the strike: a cushion, not a floor. Fees and funding are not in this table; Bet Check has them. Open the ladder on Polymarket
A $10,000 short with 147 contracts that pay $1 each if Bitcoin settles above $80,000 on 2026-09-16. They cost 14 cents each, $20 in all, 0.20% of the position.
| Bitcoin at settlement | Perp alone | Contracts | Together |
|---|---|---|---|
| $75,019 (-2.9%) | $293 | -$20 | $273 |
| $76,152 (-1.5%) | $147 | -$20 | $127 |
| $76,719 (-0.7%) | $73 | -$20 | $53 |
| $77,286 (+0.0%) | -$0 | -$20 | -$20 |
| $77,852 (+0.7%) | -$73 | -$20 | -$93 |
| $78,419 (+1.5%) | -$147 | -$20 | -$166 |
| $79,552 (+2.9%) | -$293 | -$20 | -$313 |
| $79,920 (+3.4%) | -$341 | -$20 | -$361 |
| $80,080 (+3.6%) | -$362 | $127 | -$234 |
The contracts pay the same $147 at every price past the strike: a cushion, not a floor. Fees and funding are not in this table; Bet Check has them. Open the ladder on Polymarket
In plain words
- The crowd says 80% on: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- Kalshi says raise 0.25 at 80%. Polymarket says the same at 80%. The two crowds agree. No free model prices the Fed, so the second crowd is the check.
- On the last 12 Fed decision days, Bitcoin moved a median 0.70% in the first hour, inside a usual range of 1.47%. The biggest first hour was 2.77% on 2025-03-19. It closed the hour up 33% of the time.
- Going in on Bitcoin: longs pay 7% a year to stay in; open bets up 0.1% in four hours; $46M of long bets sit within one usual move below, $23M of shorts above.
- A cushion for a $10,000 long: 147 contracts at 29 cents cost $43, 0.43% of the position, and pay $147 if Bitcoin settles below $76,000 on 2026-09-16. The same $147 at any price past the strike: a cushion, not a floor.
Fed decision in 3d 15h, Wed, Sep 16, 2:00 PM ET.
Odds: Kalshi and Polymarket. Moves: OKX perpetual candles, history built 2026-09-13. Positioning: our own snapshots and the Squeeze Map. Educational only. It describes; it never tells you what to do.
How to read this
- 01
The crowd's number is what bettors expect the print to be. It moves in minutes when the number lands, so read it the night before, not the morning after.
- 02
The usual move is the first hour's high-to-low range on the last twelve of that day. Half the days were smaller, half bigger. The biggest one is listed so you know the tail.
- 03
Going in shows who is paying to stay in, whether open bets grew or shrank, and how much borrowed money sits within one usual move. Price tends to move fast through a pile.
- 04
The cushion table is a $10,000 position plus contracts that pay $1 past a strike one usual move away. It shows the cost, the cushion, and the cliff at the strike.
Odds from Kalshi and Polymarket. Moves from OKX perpetual candles. Positioning from our own snapshots and the Squeeze Map. Educational only. It describes; it never tells you what to do.