Odds Report Card

See how often the crowd's price came true, at every price, on a year of settled bets.

A 30-cent contract says Yes happens 30 times in 100. This page checks that promise on every market settled in the last year on Polymarket and Kalshi, sports left out. At each price, how many markets, what they cost, and how often Yes really paid, a week before settlement and a day before. A score for each platform and each theme, in plain words. It feeds a one-line note into Bet Check at your price. Free, no sign-in.

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Kalshi

5,719 settled markets with a price a week out, 2026-06-30 to 2026-09-12. Sports and entertainment left out. Minimum volume 100 contracts.

0.099

Brier score, a week out

Good. Most prices landed near the outcome.

0.083

Brier score, a day out

Good. Most prices landed near the outcome.

Across all prices, Yes paid about 1 point more often than it was priced. The crowd leaned a little toward No.

Price a week before settlement
Price	Markets	Avg price	Yes paid	Paid minus price, points
0 to 10 cents	2,007	4%	3%	-1
10 to 20 cents	598	14%	14%	+0
20 to 30 cents	361	24%	26%	+2
30 to 40 cents	275	34%	33%	-2
40 to 50 cents	256	45%	44%	-1
50 to 60 cents	262	55%	61%	+7
60 to 70 cents	252	65%	66%	+1
70 to 80 cents	313	75%	77%	+2
80 to 90 cents	437	85%	89%	+3
90 to 100 cents	958	96%	97%	+2

Show the same table a day before settlement

Price a day before settlement
Price	Markets	Avg price	Yes paid	Paid minus price, points
0 to 10 cents	2,680	3%	2%	-1
10 to 20 cents	574	14%	14%	+0
20 to 30 cents	372	24%	28%	+4
30 to 40 cents	240	35%	30%	-5
40 to 50 cents	270	45%	49%	+4
50 to 60 cents	243	55%	56%	+2
60 to 70 cents	268	65%	73%	+8
70 to 80 cents	275	75%	75%	0
80 to 90 cents	452	85%	88%	+3
90 to 100 cents	1,581	97%	97%	+1

On Kalshi, contracts at 0 to 10 cents paid out 3% of the time across 2,007 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
On Kalshi, contracts at 10 to 20 cents paid out 14% of the time across 598 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
On Kalshi, contracts at 20 to 30 cents paid out 26% of the time across 361 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
On Kalshi, contracts at 30 to 40 cents paid out 33% of the time across 275 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
On Kalshi, contracts at 40 to 50 cents paid out 44% of the time across 256 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
On Kalshi, contracts at 50 to 60 cents paid out 61% of the time across 262 settled markets. That is 6 points more often than the price said, so those bets were a little cheap.
On Kalshi, contracts at 60 to 70 cents paid out 66% of the time across 252 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
On Kalshi, contracts at 70 to 80 cents paid out 77% of the time across 313 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
On Kalshi, contracts at 80 to 90 cents paid out 89% of the time across 437 settled markets. That is 4 points more often than the price said, so those bets were a little cheap.
On Kalshi, contracts at 90 to 100 cents paid out 97% of the time across 958 settled markets. That is in line with the price.

By theme, a week out
Theme	Markets	Brier	Read
Rates and economy	2,459	0.110	Good. Most prices landed near the outcome.
Politics and world	1,554	0.076	Good. Most prices landed near the outcome.
Business and tech	1,290	0.105	Good. Most prices landed near the outcome.
Crypto	228	0.143	Fair. Useful, with real misses.
Other	188	0.064	Good. Most prices landed near the outcome.

Polymarket

11,586 settled markets with a price a week out, 2025-09-12 to 2026-09-12. Sports and entertainment left out. Minimum volume $10,000.

0.081

Brier score, a week out

Good. Most prices landed near the outcome.

0.072

Brier score, a day out

Good. Most prices landed near the outcome.

Across all prices, Yes paid about 2 points more often than it was priced. The crowd leaned a little toward No.

Price a week before settlement
Price	Markets	Avg price	Yes paid	Paid minus price, points
0 to 10 cents	6,901	2%	2%	+0
10 to 20 cents	1,215	14%	20%	+6
20 to 30 cents	675	25%	29%	+5
30 to 40 cents	469	35%	40%	+5
40 to 50 cents	381	45%	46%	+1
50 to 60 cents	340	54%	61%	+6
60 to 70 cents	303	65%	67%	+1
70 to 80 cents	313	75%	77%	+2
80 to 90 cents	328	85%	86%	+1
90 to 100 cents	661	96%	98%	+2

Show the same table a day before settlement

Price a day before settlement
Price	Markets	Avg price	Yes paid	Paid minus price, points
0 to 10 cents	9,499	1%	2%	+1
10 to 20 cents	914	15%	20%	+5
20 to 30 cents	651	25%	33%	+8
30 to 40 cents	555	35%	43%	+8
40 to 50 cents	497	45%	49%	+4
50 to 60 cents	526	54%	62%	+8
60 to 70 cents	391	65%	68%	+3
70 to 80 cents	428	75%	77%	+2
80 to 90 cents	498	85%	86%	+1
90 to 100 cents	1,407	97%	98%	+1

On Polymarket, contracts at 0 to 10 cents paid out 2% of the time across 6,901 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
On Polymarket, contracts at 10 to 20 cents paid out 20% of the time across 1,215 settled markets. That is 6 points more often than the price said, so those bets were a little cheap.
On Polymarket, contracts at 20 to 30 cents paid out 29% of the time across 675 settled markets. That is 4 points more often than the price said, so those bets were a little cheap.
On Polymarket, contracts at 30 to 40 cents paid out 40% of the time across 469 settled markets. That is 5 points more often than the price said, so those bets were a little cheap.
On Polymarket, contracts at 40 to 50 cents paid out 46% of the time across 381 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
On Polymarket, contracts at 50 to 60 cents paid out 61% of the time across 340 settled markets. That is 7 points more often than the price said, so those bets were a little cheap.
On Polymarket, contracts at 60 to 70 cents paid out 67% of the time across 303 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
On Polymarket, contracts at 70 to 80 cents paid out 77% of the time across 313 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
On Polymarket, contracts at 80 to 90 cents paid out 86% of the time across 328 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
On Polymarket, contracts at 90 to 100 cents paid out 98% of the time across 661 settled markets. That is in line with the price.

By theme, a week out
Theme	Markets	Brier	Read
Politics and world	7,694	0.086	Good. Most prices landed near the outcome.
Business and tech	1,939	0.059	Sharp. The prices were close to what happened.
Rates and economy	1,881	0.080	Good. Most prices landed near the outcome.

Last build September 12, 2026. Window 365 days.

How to read this

01
A price is a promise about frequency. A 30-cent contract claims Yes happens 30 times in 100. This page checks the promise against what happened.
02
Read the third column against the fourth. When Yes paid more often than the price, those bets were cheap. When it paid less often, they were dear.
03
The Brier score adds up the misses. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip on everything, and most good forecasters land near 0.1.
04
Two horizons matter. A week out is where you decide. A day out is where the news is mostly in. Sharper a day out is normal; sharper a week out is rare.
05
Small samples lie. A bucket under thirty markets shows no rate at all, on purpose.

Method: every market settled in the last year that met the volume floor, priced from the middle of bid and ask (Kalshi daily candles) or the last daily trade (Polymarket price history) one week and one day before settlement, sports and entertainment left out. Rebuilt monthly by hand. Educational only. Past prices say nothing certain about the next market.