ToolsPrediction MarketsOdds Report Card
How did similar bets turn out?
See how often Yes won in past markets at a similar price.
Your price
41%
of Yes bets priced near 30 cents a week before settlement paid out, across 481 markets on Polymarket.
$100 on each of those bets would have returned $117 on average, so $17 per bet before fees.
A day before settlement the same price paid 43% of the time, $24 per $100 bet.
By theme and by price
The same question, one theme at a time. Avg price is what those markets traded at. Yes paid is how often the Yes side paid. The gap between the two is the part worth reading: a group of markets with an average price near 55% that resolved Yes about 62% of the time is a gap of roughly 7 percentage points.
Kalshi
6,029 settled markets with a price a week out, 2026-07-24 to 2026-10-01. Sports and entertainment left out. Minimum volume 100 contracts.
0.106
Brier score, a week out
Good. Most prices landed near the outcome.
0.077
Brier score, a day out
Good. Most prices landed near the outcome.
Across all prices, Yes paid about 2 points more often than it was priced. The crowd leaned a little toward No.
| Price | Markets | Avg price | Yes paid | Paid minus price, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 10 cents | 2,057 | 4% | 3% | -1 |
| 10 to 20 cents | 698 | 14% | 17% | +3 |
| 20 to 30 cents | 400 | 24% | 28% | +3 |
| 30 to 40 cents | 288 | 34% | 35% | +0 |
| 40 to 50 cents | 288 | 44% | 45% | +1 |
| 50 to 60 cents | 293 | 55% | 63% | +8 |
| 60 to 70 cents | 285 | 65% | 68% | +3 |
| 70 to 80 cents | 343 | 75% | 78% | +2 |
| 80 to 90 cents | 447 | 85% | 91% | +6 |
| 90 to 100 cents | 930 | 95% | 96% | +1 |
Show the same table a day before settlement
| Price | Markets | Avg price | Yes paid | Paid minus price, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 10 cents | 3,106 | 3% | 2% | -1 |
| 10 to 20 cents | 686 | 14% | 15% | +1 |
| 20 to 30 cents | 391 | 24% | 27% | +3 |
| 30 to 40 cents | 261 | 35% | 32% | -3 |
| 40 to 50 cents | 265 | 45% | 51% | +6 |
| 50 to 60 cents | 242 | 55% | 58% | +3 |
| 60 to 70 cents | 294 | 65% | 75% | +10 |
| 70 to 80 cents | 321 | 75% | 76% | +1 |
| 80 to 90 cents | 498 | 85% | 90% | +5 |
| 90 to 100 cents | 1,748 | 97% | 98% | +1 |
- On Kalshi, contracts at 0 to 10 cents paid out 3% of the time across 2,057 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
- On Kalshi, contracts at 10 to 20 cents paid out 17% of the time across 698 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
- On Kalshi, contracts at 20 to 30 cents paid out 28% of the time across 400 settled markets. That is 4 points more often than the price said.
- On Kalshi, contracts at 30 to 40 cents paid out 35% of the time across 288 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
- On Kalshi, contracts at 40 to 50 cents paid out 45% of the time across 288 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
- On Kalshi, contracts at 50 to 60 cents paid out 63% of the time across 293 settled markets. That is 8 points more often than the price said.
- On Kalshi, contracts at 60 to 70 cents paid out 68% of the time across 285 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
- On Kalshi, contracts at 70 to 80 cents paid out 78% of the time across 343 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
- On Kalshi, contracts at 80 to 90 cents paid out 91% of the time across 447 settled markets. That is 6 points more often than the price said.
- On Kalshi, contracts at 90 to 100 cents paid out 96% of the time across 930 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
| Theme | Markets | Brier | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rates and economy | 2,579 | 0.110 | Good. Most prices landed near the outcome. |
| Politics and world | 1,920 | 0.092 | Good. Most prices landed near the outcome. |
| Business and tech | 1,095 | 0.116 | Good. Most prices landed near the outcome. |
| Crypto | 246 | 0.163 | Fair. Useful, with real misses. |
| Other | 189 | 0.051 | Sharp. The prices were close to what happened. |
Theme
| Price | Markets | Avg price | Yes paid | Paid minus price, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 10 cents | 685 | 4% | 2% | -2 |
| 10 to 20 cents | 306 | 14% | 15% | +1 |
| 20 to 30 cents | 192 | 24% | 28% | +3 |
| 30 to 40 cents | 144 | 34% | 33% | -1 |
| 40 to 50 cents | 155 | 45% | 46% | +2 |
| 50 to 60 cents | 153 | 54% | 60% | +6 |
| 60 to 70 cents | 132 | 65% | 68% | +4 |
| 70 to 80 cents | 165 | 75% | 79% | +4 |
| 80 to 90 cents | 231 | 85% | 91% | +6 |
| 90 to 100 cents | 416 | 95% | 97% | +2 |
Show the same theme a day before settlement
| Price | Markets | Avg price | Yes paid | Paid minus price, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 10 cents | 1,014 | 4% | 2% | -1 |
| 10 to 20 cents | 343 | 14% | 12% | -2 |
| 20 to 30 cents | 198 | 24% | 28% | +4 |
| 30 to 40 cents | 139 | 34% | 27% | -8 |
| 40 to 50 cents | 139 | 45% | 50% | +5 |
| 50 to 60 cents | 128 | 55% | 57% | +2 |
| 60 to 70 cents | 161 | 65% | 71% | +6 |
| 70 to 80 cents | 174 | 75% | 77% | +2 |
| 80 to 90 cents | 253 | 85% | 91% | +6 |
| 90 to 100 cents | 806 | 96% | 98% | +2 |
Polymarket
11,868 settled markets with a price a week out, 2025-10-01 to 2026-10-01. Sports and entertainment left out. Minimum volume $10,000.
0.082
Brier score, a week out
Good. Most prices landed near the outcome.
0.072
Brier score, a day out
Good. Most prices landed near the outcome.
Across all prices, Yes paid about 2 points more often than it was priced. The crowd leaned a little toward No.
| Price | Markets | Avg price | Yes paid | Paid minus price, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 10 cents | 7,009 | 2% | 2% | +0 |
| 10 to 20 cents | 1,244 | 14% | 21% | +6 |
| 20 to 30 cents | 692 | 25% | 28% | +4 |
| 30 to 40 cents | 481 | 35% | 41% | +6 |
| 40 to 50 cents | 394 | 45% | 46% | +1 |
| 50 to 60 cents | 349 | 54% | 62% | +8 |
| 60 to 70 cents | 323 | 65% | 67% | +1 |
| 70 to 80 cents | 331 | 75% | 78% | +2 |
| 80 to 90 cents | 345 | 85% | 86% | +0 |
| 90 to 100 cents | 700 | 96% | 97% | +1 |
Show the same table a day before settlement
| Price | Markets | Avg price | Yes paid | Paid minus price, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 10 cents | 9,431 | 1% | 2% | +0 |
| 10 to 20 cents | 921 | 15% | 20% | +5 |
| 20 to 30 cents | 656 | 25% | 34% | +9 |
| 30 to 40 cents | 535 | 35% | 43% | +8 |
| 40 to 50 cents | 482 | 45% | 48% | +3 |
| 50 to 60 cents | 549 | 54% | 62% | +8 |
| 60 to 70 cents | 391 | 65% | 70% | +5 |
| 70 to 80 cents | 445 | 75% | 78% | +3 |
| 80 to 90 cents | 512 | 85% | 87% | +2 |
| 90 to 100 cents | 1,466 | 97% | 98% | +1 |
- On Polymarket, contracts at 0 to 10 cents paid out 2% of the time across 7,009 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
- On Polymarket, contracts at 10 to 20 cents paid out 21% of the time across 1,244 settled markets. That is 7 points more often than the price said.
- On Polymarket, contracts at 20 to 30 cents paid out 28% of the time across 692 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
- On Polymarket, contracts at 30 to 40 cents paid out 41% of the time across 481 settled markets. That is 6 points more often than the price said.
- On Polymarket, contracts at 40 to 50 cents paid out 46% of the time across 394 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
- On Polymarket, contracts at 50 to 60 cents paid out 62% of the time across 349 settled markets. That is 8 points more often than the price said.
- On Polymarket, contracts at 60 to 70 cents paid out 67% of the time across 323 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
- On Polymarket, contracts at 70 to 80 cents paid out 78% of the time across 331 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
- On Polymarket, contracts at 80 to 90 cents paid out 86% of the time across 345 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
- On Polymarket, contracts at 90 to 100 cents paid out 97% of the time across 700 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
| Theme | Markets | Brier | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics and world | 7,786 | 0.088 | Good. Most prices landed near the outcome. |
| Business and tech | 1,991 | 0.061 | Good. Most prices landed near the outcome. |
| Rates and economy | 1,936 | 0.081 | Good. Most prices landed near the outcome. |
| Crypto | 128 | 0.071 | Good. Most prices landed near the outcome. |
Theme
| Price | Markets | Avg price | Yes paid | Paid minus price, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 10 cents | 4,566 | 2% | 2% | +1 |
| 10 to 20 cents | 923 | 14% | 22% | +8 |
| 20 to 30 cents | 477 | 24% | 29% | +5 |
| 30 to 40 cents | 318 | 35% | 42% | +7 |
| 40 to 50 cents | 263 | 45% | 45% | +0 |
| 50 to 60 cents | 241 | 54% | 62% | +8 |
| 60 to 70 cents | 189 | 66% | 70% | +4 |
| 70 to 80 cents | 200 | 75% | 78% | +2 |
| 80 to 90 cents | 228 | 85% | 84% | -1 |
| 90 to 100 cents | 381 | 96% | 96% | +1 |
Show the same theme a day before settlement
| Price | Markets | Avg price | Yes paid | Paid minus price, points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 10 cents | 6,381 | 1% | 2% | +1 |
| 10 to 20 cents | 680 | 15% | 21% | +7 |
| 20 to 30 cents | 458 | 25% | 33% | +9 |
| 30 to 40 cents | 395 | 35% | 44% | +9 |
| 40 to 50 cents | 317 | 45% | 48% | +4 |
| 50 to 60 cents | 337 | 54% | 65% | +10 |
| 60 to 70 cents | 260 | 65% | 72% | +6 |
| 70 to 80 cents | 277 | 75% | 76% | +1 |
| 80 to 90 cents | 313 | 85% | 88% | +2 |
| 90 to 100 cents | 863 | 97% | 97% | +0 |
Last build October 1, 2026. Window 365 days.
How this tool works
How to read this
- 01
Type a price at the top. The page shows how often Yes paid at that price on a year of settled markets, and what $100 a bet would have returned.
- 02
A price is a promise about frequency. A 30 cent contract claims Yes happens 30 times in 100. This page checks the promise against what happened.
- 03
Read the third column against the fourth. When Yes paid more often than the price, those bets were cheap. When it paid less often, they were dear.
- 04
The Brier score adds up the misses. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip on everything, and most good forecasters land near 0.1.
- 05
Two horizons matter. A week out is where you decide. A day out is where the news is mostly in. Sharper a day out is normal; sharper a week out is rare.
- 06
Small samples lie. A bucket under thirty markets shows no rate at all, on purpose.
Method: every market settled in the last year that met the volume floor, priced from the middle of bid and ask (Kalshi daily candles) or the last daily trade (Polymarket price history) one week and one day before settlement, sports and entertainment left out. Rebuilt monthly by hand. Educational only. Past prices say nothing certain about the next market.
How the calculation works
- 01Settled markets are grouped by their price a week before settlement, in 10 cent buckets.
- 02Hit rate = the share of each bucket that resolved yes. Calibration = hit rate minus the bucket's price.
Data sources and update times
- Kalshi and Polymarket settled markets
- A year of outcomes in data/calibration.json
- Rebuilt monthly by hand, date shown on the page