Market WatchFri, Oct 23, 2026
The whole market in two minutes.
Everything on one page. Where the borrowed money is piling up, who is paying to hold a trade, what the betting markets think, and what lands this week.
The numbers refresh through the day. Come back whenever.
Crowd Gauge
How crowded are leveraged perp traders right now?
56
Piling in
On Bitcoin and Ether, $2.29B of buyers are close to being forced out by a small move, against $567M on the other side. Longs pay 6% a year to stay in.
Read from what traders pay to hold a position, how much borrowed money is riding on it, how close those positions sit to being closed out, and how fast prices are moving. Not from what anyone is saying.
yesterday 52, last week 54, last month 51
Post on XTrading ease
Could you get in and out of the prediction markets right now?
85
Easy to trade
The middle market scores 85 of 100 on how easy it is to get in and out. Half the markets trade at 1 cents between the two sides or tighter.
Read from how much money is trading, how far apart the two sides are, how long until the market settles, and whether the rule is plain. Volume on its own can look busy while the book is thin.
See the prediction market dials
Post on XPaid for the risk
What riskier RWAs pay over safe onchain dollars.
22
A little extra
Safe onchain dollars pay 3.72%. Private credit pays 4.84%, 1.12 more. Stablecoin savings pay 3.80%, about the same.
Base rates only. A yield paid in reward tokens is left out.
Post on XToday's market brief
- Crowd Gauge: 56 out of 100, piling in. Yesterday 52.
- Perp market risk: Low, 16 of 100, with 0 of 17 markets crowded enough to watch.
- Positioning: 3 crowded long, 0 crowded short.
- Biggest move: Crude oil (WTI): price +4.6% with open bets up +18.4%.
- Next up: Fed decision, Wed, Oct 28, 2:00 PM ET.
Four numbers, right now.
Loading the live numbers.
From the GnosisFi radar (every 15 minutes), Hyperliquid funding (every minute), Polymarket and Kalshi (every 10 minutes) and the GnosisFi event calendar.
Market by market
Radar read at Oct 23, 10:45 PM UTC, refreshed every 15 minutes.
Where the borrowed money is piling up
Across crypto, stocks, indices and commodities.
How to read it
One block per market. The wider it is, the more money is riding on it. The color is how crowded that trade has become.
LowModerateElevatedHigh
Last 24 hours
What changed while you were away
The markets that moved most in the last day, and whether money came in or went out.
How to read it
Each market shows the 24 hour change in price and open bets, with a short note to explain what it means.
- Price up, open bets up
- New positioning entering.
- Price up, open bets down
- Positions closing as price rises.
- Price down, open bets up
- New positioning entering as price falls.
- Price down, open bets down
- Positions closing as price falls.
Crude oil (WTI): price +4.6% with open bets up +18.4%.
New positions were opened as price rose. Funding flipped from -4% to +31% a year: longs now pay to stay in.
stock, index or commodity perp$218M open betshistoryPost on X
+4.6%
price, 24h
+18.4%
open bets, 24h
Coinbase: open bets up +6.9% while price sat still (-2.8%).
New positions were opened while price held about flat.
stock, index or commodity perp$15M open betshistoryPost on X
-2.8%
price, 24h
+6.9%
open bets, 24h
Tesla: open bets down 12.5% with price -0.5%.
Positions were closed while price held about flat.
stock, index or commodity perp$45M open betshistoryPost on X
-0.5%
price, 24h
-12.5%
open bets, 24h
Silver: funding flipped from +11% to -10% a year.
Shorts now pay to stay in. A day ago longs were paying.
stock, index or commodity perp$168M open betshistoryPost on X
-1.4%
price, 24h
-2.3%
open bets, 24h
Prediction markets, this week
What could move markets this week.
Dates that can move prices, and what the betting crowd expects from each one.
How to read it
Check the timing. Around major events, price swings, liquidity and positioning can change fast.
- When
- Date and time, in New York time and your local time.
- What
- The event and why it matters.
- Prediction odds
- What prediction markets are currently pricing.
- 24h change
- Shows how much the odds have moved.
developing now
Worlddeveloping
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31?
The crowd moved 20 points in a day, to 17%. Odds moving this fast are news you can read as a number.
Prediction odds
17%
24h change
-20 pts
Sat, Oct 24, 11:59 PM ET
Worldsettles
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?
This market settles Sat, Oct 24, 11:59 PM ET. Traders say 94% right now.
Prediction odds
94%
24h change
+1 pts
Sun, Oct 25, 7:59 PM ET
Worldsettles
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
This market settles Sun, Oct 25, 7:59 PM ET. Traders say 71% right now.
Prediction odds
71%
24h change
+2 pts
Sun, Oct 25, 7:59 PM ET
Worldsettles
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
This market settles Sun, Oct 25, 7:59 PM ET. Traders say 69% right now.
Prediction odds
69%
24h change
-2 pts
Wed, Oct 28, 2:00 PM ET
Rates
The Fed sets the interest rate and says what comes next. The single biggest scheduled move of the month.
Traders say 93% on: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?, down 1 in a day.
Going in: perp risk Low, $1.69B within 5% of being liquidated, typical funding 10.9% a year.
Get readyBTC on HyperliquidBTC on BinanceETH on HyperliquidSP500 on HyperliquidView on PolymarketPost on X
Prediction odds
93%
24h change
-1 pts
Scheduled events and decisions, in New York time and your local time, with live odds from prediction markets. Odds refresh every 10 minutes.
Perps, funding rates
Who is paying to stay in
Holding a borrowed position costs money every few hours. One side pays the other. Whoever is paying is the crowded side.
Reading funding...
How to read it
Positive funding means longs pay shorts. Negative funding means shorts pay longs. The further funding moves from normal levels, the more attention it deserves.
- Annualized rates
- Figures show what the current funding rate would add up to over a year if it stayed the same.
- Live data
- Rates are read fresh from Hyperliquid each time you open the page.
Crowd Gauge, stocks and gold
How crowded are the stock and commodity perps right now?
Read from the same five things as the crowd dial at the top, over these markets only. Liquidation data covers crypto, so this one leaves that part out.
55
Balanced
Longs pay 5% a year to stay in. Open bets up 1.7% while price rose: leverage building on the long side.
Across 10 markets, weighted by open bets.
Post on XPerps, stocks, indices and commodities
Stocks, indices and commodities. Trading day and night as perps.
Tesla, gold, oil and the indices, traded the same way as crypto and open all night. Biggest moves, strangest funding, most money on the line.
Reading the stock and gold perps...
How to read it
- Biggest gainers, 24h
- Markets with the largest 24 hour price increases.
- Biggest losers, 24h
- Markets with the largest 24 hour price declines.
- Funding extremes
- Markets where longs or shorts are paying unusually high funding.
Go deeper
Open the Stock and Gold Perps Board
Every market with its price, its day move, the money on it and what holding costs. It also shows how far a position sits from being closed out, and whether the US exchanges are open. Refreshed every 2 minutes.
- Every stock, index, commodity and pre-IPO perp
- Price, 24 hour move, open bets, funding and volume
- Whether US exchanges are open or closed right now
- Your distance to liquidation on any market
Built for perp traders
Prediction markets, live odds
What the world is betting on.
Real money is riding on these questions. Where the most of it sits, and which odds moved hardest today.
Reading the prediction markets...
How to read this page in two minutes
Open this once. After that you will not need it.Open the guide
How to read this page in two minutes
- 01Calm or crowded?
Start with the three dials. Backing off means shorts are crowded, piling in means longs are, and either extreme is fragile. The other two say whether the betting markets can be traded and what real world assets pay over cash.
- 02What changed overnight?
Where open bets grew or shrank in 24 hours and what that usually means. Fuel builds quietly.
- 03What is coming this week?
Reports and decisions with a fixed clock. What the crowd says about them. How crowded the market is going in.
- 04Who is paying to stay in?
Funding tells you which side is crowded. The side that pays the most is the side a squeeze hits first.
- 05What is the world betting on?
The crowd's odds on the Fed, inflation, elections and crypto prices. Big odds moves are news you can read as a number.
Then act with the tools: the Trade Plan Checker before a trade, the Liquidation Danger Check on a position you hold, the Squeeze Map to see where the piles sit.
Perp data: Binance and Hyperliquid via our radar, every 15 minutes. Prediction odds: Polymarket and Kalshi public feeds, every 10 minutes. Educational only. Not financial advice. Odds are the crowd's opinion, not facts.