Market Watch: perps and prediction markets today (2026)

01

Calm or crowded?

Radar read at Sep 8, 7:15 PM UTC, refreshed every 15 minutes.

Overall perp market risk

Low

score 15 of 1001 elevated1 crowded long1 crowded short

Leverage is building in 1 of 17 assets; the rest are calm.

HYPE SOL ETH BTC

Each cell is one market: wider means more open bets, colour is risk.LowModerateElevatedHigh

Sort by

AssetPrice 1hOpen bets 1hFunding / yrRegimeRisk

Asset
CLCrude oil (WTI) · commodity perp
Price 1h
+1.21%
Open bets 1h
+7.26%
Funding / yr
-371%
Regime
Trend Confirmed
Risk
55
Shorts pay 371% a year to stay in: a crowded short side. New leveraged buyers are entering the move.
Asset
GOLDGold · commodity perp
Price 1h
-0.37%
Open bets 1h
-1.15%
Funding / yr
+5%
Regime
Low Activity
Risk
22
Price is moving but open interest is steady, so new leverage is not driving it.
Asset
NVDANvidia · stock perp
Price 1h
-0.15%
Open bets 1h
-0.78%
Funding / yr
+5%
Regime
Low Activity
Risk
20
Both price and leverage are calm right now.
Asset
TSLATesla · stock perp
Price 1h
+0.37%
Open bets 1h
-0.43%
Funding / yr
+5%
Regime
Low Activity
Risk
18
Price is moving but open interest is steady, so new leverage is not driving it.
Asset
HYPEHyperliquid
Price 1h
+0.27%
Open bets 1h
+0.39%
Funding / yr
-2%
Regime
Low Activity
Risk
17
Both price and leverage are calm right now.
Asset
BNBBNB
Price 1h
-0.54%
Open bets 1h
-0.94%
Funding / yr
-1%
Regime
Low Activity
Risk
17
Price is moving but open interest is steady, so new leverage is not driving it.
Asset
COINCoinbase · stock perp
Price 1h
-0.66%
Open bets 1h
-0.75%
Funding / yr
+5%
Regime
Low Activity
Risk
16
Price is moving but open interest is steady, so new leverage is not driving it.
Asset
SP500S&P 500 · index perp
Price 1h
-0.11%
Open bets 1h
+2.74%
Funding / yr
+4%
Regime
Compression
Risk
15
Leverage is building on flat price, so breakout risk is rising.
Asset
MSTRStrategy (MSTR) · stock perp
Price 1h
-0.78%
Open bets 1h
-0.55%
Funding / yr
+8%
Regime
Low Activity
Risk
15
Price is moving but open interest is steady, so new leverage is not driving it.
Asset
SILVERSilver · commodity perp
Price 1h
-0.53%
Open bets 1h
-0.60%
Funding / yr
+5%
Regime
Low Activity
Risk
15
Price is moving but open interest is steady, so new leverage is not driving it.
Asset
DOGEDogecoin
Price 1h
-0.77%
Open bets 1h
-1.25%
Funding / yr
+11%
Regime
Low Activity
Risk
11
Price is moving but open interest is steady, so new leverage is not driving it.
Asset
XYZ100XYZ100 (Nasdaq-100 style) · index perp
Price 1h
-0.10%
Open bets 1h
+1.67%
Funding / yr
+5%
Regime
Low Activity
Risk
9
Both price and leverage are calm right now.
Asset
SOLSolana
Price 1h
-0.70%
Open bets 1h
-0.79%
Funding / yr
-3%
Regime
Low Activity
Risk
8
Price is moving but open interest is steady, so new leverage is not driving it.
Asset
XRPXRP
Price 1h
-0.55%
Open bets 1h
-0.57%
Funding / yr
+5%
Regime
Low Activity
Risk
8
Price is moving but open interest is steady, so new leverage is not driving it.
Asset
ETHEthereum
Price 1h
-0.47%
Open bets 1h
-1.28%
Funding / yr
+8%
Regime
Low Activity
Risk
6
Price is moving but open interest is steady, so new leverage is not driving it.
Asset
AAPLApple · stock perp
Price 1h
-0.09%
Open bets 1h
-0.15%
Funding / yr
-1%
Regime
Low Activity
Risk
5
Both price and leverage are calm right now.
Asset
BTCBitcoin
Price 1h
-0.26%
Open bets 1h
-0.32%
Funding / yr
+5%
Regime
Low Activity
Risk
5
Both price and leverage are calm right now.

02

What changed in the last 24 hours

Compared with 24 hours earlier, from our own 15-minute snapshots. 6 of 17 tracked markets moved enough to matter. The biggest: Crude oil (WTI): open bets up +9.9% while price sat still (+0.4%).

01
Crude oil (WTI): open bets up +9.9% while price sat still (+0.4%).
Borrowed money piled in without a move. That is fuel: when price finally moves, more people get pushed out at once. Funding moved from -26% to -371% a year.
stock, index or commodity perp$249M open betshistoryPost on X
+0.4%
price, 24h
+9.9%
open bets, 24h
02
Strategy (MSTR): price -3.4% and open bets down 6.0%.
Positions were closed or closed out during the move. Less fuel left in the tank after this.
stock, index or commodity perp$41M open betshistoryPost on X
-3.4%
price, 24h
-6.0%
open bets, 24h
03
Nvidia: open bets down 11.0% with price -2.7%.
Traders stepped away without a big move. A quieter, less crowded market.
stock, index or commodity perp$113M open betshistoryPost on X
-2.7%
price, 24h
-11.0%
open bets, 24h
04
Gold: open bets down 6.2% with price -0.9%.
Traders stepped away without a big move. A quieter, less crowded market.
stock, index or commodity perp$276M open betshistoryPost on X
-0.9%
price, 24h
-6.2%
open bets, 24h
05
Tesla: price +3.3% with open bets about flat (-3.3%).
A move without new bets behind it. Usually spot-driven, and it holds better than a leverage-driven one.
stock, index or commodity perp$49M open betshistoryPost on X
+3.3%
price, 24h
-3.3%
open bets, 24h
06
Solana: funding flipped from +3% to -10% a year.
Shorts now pay to stay in, a little. The crowd switched sides.
crypto$1.40B open betshistoryPost on X
-0.6%
price, 24h
-2.4%
open bets, 24h

03

Who is paying to stay in

Funding is the fee traders pay each other every hour. The crowded side pays.

Reading funding…

04

Stocks, gold and oil perps

Bets on Tesla, gold or the S&P 500 that trade day and night on Hyperliquid.

Reading the stock and gold perps…

05

What the world is betting on

Polymarket and Kalshi odds on rates, inflation, elections, companies and crypto. Sports left out on purpose.

Reading the prediction markets…

06

How to read this page in two minutes

01Calm or crowded?
Start with the market risk score. Low means leverage is not piling up; High means a lot of people are one move away from being closed out.
02What changed overnight?
The 24-hour ledger shows where open bets grew or shrank and what that usually means. Fuel builds quietly.
03Who is paying to stay in?
Funding tells you which side is crowded. The side that pays the most is the side a squeeze hits first.
04What are stocks, gold and oil perps doing?
The biggest movers and the most expensive sides among the round-the-clock bets on stocks and commodities.
05What is the world betting on?
Prediction markets are the crowd's odds on the Fed, inflation, elections and crypto prices. Big odds moves are news you can read as a number.

Then act with the tools: the Trade Plan Checker before a trade, the Liquidation Danger Check on a position you hold, the Squeeze Map to see where the piles sit.

Perp data: Binance and Hyperliquid via our radar, every 15 minutes. Prediction odds: Polymarket and Kalshi public feeds, every 10 minutes. Educational only. Not financial advice. Odds are the crowd's opinion, not facts.