ToolsPrediction MarketsOdds Gap Finder
Do the forecasts agree?
Compare market prices with another estimate for the same event.
01, settles Dec 10
How hot is the next inflation print, month over month?
Kalshi's middle sits at -0.04%. The model says +0.14%. The crowd leans cooler than the model. The crowd gives a print above the model's number 8%.
LessonThe nowcast tracks prices every business day. When the crowd sits above it, the crowd is paying for a surprise that the data does not show yet.
-0.04%
Kalshi: middle of the ladder
+0.14%
Cleveland Fed nowcast, November 2026
updated 11/12
How these prices have paid out before
- Across all prices on Kalshi, Yes paid about 2 points more often than it was priced. The crowd leaned a little toward No.
Measured a week before settlement, on markets that settled in the last year. Sports left out. See the full Odds Report Card
Your call
53%
chance the crowd gives a print at or above your number.
You say -0.05%. The crowd's middle is -0.04%. You agree with the crowd.
The model says +0.14%. You sit 0.19 below it.
Kalshi gives a print at or above your number 53%. A Yes there costs about 53 cents and pays $0.89 per $1 if you are right.
Payouts are before fees and spread. Bet Check takes them off. Your calls stay in this browser.
02, settles Dec 4
How many jobs will the next report show?
The crowd's middle sits at +85,000 jobs. The last three reports averaged +137,000. The crowd expects a slowdown. No free model forecasts the jobs number, so the recent pace is the reference.
LessonJobs reports move Bitcoin about twice as much as a normal hour. The market prices the number, then the revision changes it. Trade the rule, not the headline.
+85,000 jobs
Kalshi: middle of the ladder
+137,000 a month
Recent pace, last three reports
data through 2026-10-01
How these prices have paid out before
- Across all prices on Kalshi, Yes paid about 2 points more often than it was priced. The crowd leaned a little toward No.
Measured a week before settlement, on markets that settled in the last year. Sports left out. See the full Odds Report Card
Your call
48%
chance the crowd gives a print at or above your number.
You say +90k jobs. The crowd's middle is +85k jobs. You sit 5 above it.
The model says +137k jobs. You sit 47 below it.
Kalshi gives a print at or above your number 48%. A Yes there costs about 48 cents and pays $1.08 per $1 if you are right.
Payouts are before fees and spread. Bet Check takes them off. Your calls stay in this browser.
03, settles Dec 9
What does the Fed do at its next meeting?
Kalshi says raise 0.25 at 87%. Polymarket says the same at 89%. The two crowds agree. No free model prices the Fed, so the second crowd is the check.
LessonWhen two crowds with different traders land within a point, the price is the market's best guess. The edge is in the data prints before the meeting, not on the day.
87%
Kalshi: raise 0.25
89%
Polymarket: raise 0.25
-
Nothing free to compare it with
How these prices have paid out before
- On Kalshi, contracts at 80 to 90 cents paid out 91% of the time across 447 settled markets. That is 6 points more often than the price said.
- On Polymarket, contracts at 80 to 90 cents paid out 86% of the time across 345 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
- Across all prices on Kalshi, Yes paid about 2 points more often than it was priced. The crowd leaned a little toward No.
- Across all prices on Polymarket, Yes paid about 2 points more often than it was priced. The crowd leaned a little toward No.
Measured a week before settlement, on markets that settled in the last year. Sports left out. See the full Odds Report Card
Your call
0 pts
your chance 89% against the crowd's 89%, you agree.
You lean Yes. A Yes at 89 cents pays $0.12 per $1 if you are right. Your edge over the price is 0 points, before fees.
Payouts are before fees and spread. Bet Check takes them off. Your calls stay in this browser.
Show the other 8 questions
04, settles Jan 28
How fast did the economy grow last quarter?
The crowd's middle sits at 3.1%. The model says 3.5%. The crowd gives a print at or above the model's number 33%. The crowd discounts the model.
LessonGDPNow misses by about a point early in a quarter and gets sharper as the data lands. A model is a reference, not an answer. The crowd knows that too.
3.1%
Kalshi: middle of the ladder
3.5%
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
Q4 2026 estimate
How these prices have paid out before
- Across all prices on Kalshi, Yes paid about 2 points more often than it was priced. The crowd leaned a little toward No.
Measured a week before settlement, on markets that settled in the last year. Sports left out. See the full Odds Report Card
Your call
49%
chance the crowd gives a print at or above your number.
You say +3.1%. The crowd's middle is +3.1%. You agree with the crowd.
The model says +3.5%. You sit 0.4 below it.
Kalshi gives a print at or above your number 49%. A Yes there costs about 49 cents and pays $1.04 per $1 if you are right.
Payouts are before fees and spread. Bet Check takes them off. Your calls stay in this browser.
05, settles Jan 31
Does a US recession start soon?
Kalshi says 2%. Polymarket says 2%. The yield curve formula says 17% within twelve months. The model looks a year out; the markets only to December.
LessonThe yield curve has called most US recessions a year early, with false alarms. A market that settles in three months and a model that looks twelve months out are not the same bet.
2%
Kalshi: recession starts this year
2%
Polymarket: recession by year end
17%
New York Fed yield curve formula, next 12 months
spread as of 2026-11-10
How these prices have paid out before
- On Kalshi, contracts at 0 to 10 cents paid out 3% of the time across 2,057 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
- On Polymarket, contracts at 0 to 10 cents paid out 2% of the time across 7,009 settled markets. That is in line with the price.
- Across all prices on Kalshi, Yes paid about 2 points more often than it was priced. The crowd leaned a little toward No.
- Across all prices on Polymarket, Yes paid about 2 points more often than it was priced. The crowd leaned a little toward No.
Measured a week before settlement, on markets that settled in the last year. Sports left out. See the full Odds Report Card
Your call
0 pts
your chance 2% against the crowd's 2%, you agree.
The model says 17%.
You lean Yes. A Yes at 2 cents pays $49.00 per $1 if you are right. Your edge over the price is 0 points, before fees.
Payouts are before fees and spread. Bet Check takes them off. Your calls stay in this browser.
open on Kalshiopen on PolymarketFRED, 10-year minus 3-month spread +0.68 points
06, settles Nov 13
Where will Bitcoin be at noon New York on November 13?
For November 13 the crowd's even odds line is $71,644. The options market puts it at $71,614. The biggest gap is at $72,000: crowd 43%, options 35%. Worth a second look.
LessonThe options market is where the professionals price the same question. A gap of five points or more is worth a second look; most close by settlement.
$71,644
Polymarket: crowd's even odds line
$71,614
Deribit options, even odds line
expires 2026-11-13 08:00 UTC
Above Crowd Options Gap $66,000 99% 99% 0 $68,000 97% 97% 0 $70,000 85% 87% -3 $72,000 43% 35% +7 $74,000 7% 2% +4 $76,000 1% 0% +1 Polymarket settles on the Binance one minute close at noon New York. The options expire at 08:00 UTC the same day, eight hours earlier.
How these prices have paid out before
- Across all prices on Polymarket, Yes paid about 2 points more often than it was priced. The crowd leaned a little toward No.
Measured a week before settlement, on markets that settled in the last year. Sports left out. See the full Odds Report Card
Your call
43%
chance the crowd gives $72,000 or higher, the rung at or below your price.
You see it above $72,000. Polymarket gives $72,000 or higher 43%. The options market says 35%.
If you are right, a Yes on $72,000 or higher at 43 cents pays $1.33 per $1.
Payouts are before fees and spread. Bet Check takes them off. Your calls stay in this browser.
07, settles Nov 13
Where will Ether be at noon New York on November 13?
For November 13 the crowd's even odds line is $2,019. The options market puts it at $2,010. The biggest gap is small: at $2,100 the crowd says 6% and the options 2%.
LessonThe options market is where the professionals price the same question. A gap of five points or more is worth a second look; most close by settlement.
$2,019
Polymarket: crowd's even odds line
$2,010
Deribit options, even odds line
expires 2026-11-13 08:00 UTC
Above Crowd Options Gap $1,900 96% 95% +0 $2,000 60% 61% -1 $2,100 6% 2% +4 Polymarket settles on the Binance one minute close at noon New York. The options expire at 08:00 UTC the same day, eight hours earlier.
How these prices have paid out before
- Across all prices on Polymarket, Yes paid about 2 points more often than it was priced. The crowd leaned a little toward No.
Measured a week before settlement, on markets that settled in the last year. Sports left out. See the full Odds Report Card
Your call
60%
chance the crowd gives $2,000 or higher, the rung at or below your price.
You see it above $2,000. Polymarket gives $2,000 or higher 60%. The options market says 61%.
If you are right, a Yes on $2,000 or higher at 60 cents pays $0.67 per $1.
Payouts are before fees and spread. Bet Check takes them off. Your calls stay in this browser.
08, settles Nov 13
Where will Solana be at noon New York on November 13?
For November 13 the crowd's even odds line is $82. The options market puts it at $81. The biggest gap is small: at $80 the crowd says 69% and the options 74%.
LessonThe options market is where the professionals price the same question. A gap of five points or more is worth a second look; most close by settlement.
$82
Polymarket: crowd's even odds line
$81
Deribit options, even odds line
expires 2026-11-13 08:00 UTC
Above Crowd Options Gap $75 96% 99% -3 $80 69% 74% -5 $85 8% 4% +4 Polymarket settles on the Binance one minute close at noon New York. The options expire at 08:00 UTC the same day, eight hours earlier.
How these prices have paid out before
- Across all prices on Polymarket, Yes paid about 2 points more often than it was priced. The crowd leaned a little toward No.
Measured a week before settlement, on markets that settled in the last year. Sports left out. See the full Odds Report Card
Your call
69%
chance the crowd gives $80 or higher, the rung at or below your price.
You see it above $80. Polymarket gives $80 or higher 69%. The options market says 74%.
If you are right, a Yes on $80 or higher at 69 cents pays $0.45 per $1.
Payouts are before fees and spread. Bet Check takes them off. Your calls stay in this browser.
09, settles Nov 13
Where will XRP be at noon New York on November 13?
For November 13 the crowd's even odds line is $1.
LessonThe options market is where the professionals price the same question. A gap of five points or more is worth a second look; most close by settlement.
$1
Polymarket: crowd's even odds line
-
Nothing free to compare it with
Above Crowd Options Gap $1 79% 83% -4 $1 3% 83% -80 Polymarket settles on the Binance one minute close at noon New York. The options expire at 08:00 UTC the same day, eight hours earlier.
How these prices have paid out before
- Across all prices on Polymarket, Yes paid about 2 points more often than it was priced. The crowd leaned a little toward No.
Measured a week before settlement, on markets that settled in the last year. Sports left out. See the full Odds Report Card
Your call
3%
chance the crowd gives $1 or higher, the rung at or below your price.
You see it above $1. Polymarket gives $1 or higher 3%. The options market says 83%.
If you are right, a Yes on $1 or higher at 3 cents pays $32.33 per $1.
Payouts are before fees and spread. Bet Check takes them off. Your calls stay in this browser.
10, settles Jan 1
Where will Bitcoin end the year?
The crowd's even odds line for New Year's Day is $72,553. The options market's line a week earlier is $71,505. The biggest gap is at $80,000: crowd 25%, options 19%. Worth a second look.
LessonYear end bands are where people overpay for long shots. Compare the far tails with the options market before paying for a moonshot or a crash.
$72,553
Kalshi: crowd's even odds line, January 1
$71,505
Deribit options, even odds line, 2026-12-25
expires 2026-12-25 08:00 UTC
Above Crowd Options Gap $55,000 95% 93% +2 $60,000 89% 86% +3 $65,000 79% 75% +5 $70,000 61% 56% +5 $75,000 40% 35% +4 $80,000 25% 19% +6 $85,000 15% 9% +5 $90,000 10% 5% +5 Kalshi settles on the CF Benchmarks index at midnight New York on January 1. The options expire December 25 at 08:00 UTC, a week earlier.
How these prices have paid out before
- Across all prices on Kalshi, Yes paid about 2 points more often than it was priced. The crowd leaned a little toward No.
Measured a week before settlement, on markets that settled in the last year. Sports left out. See the full Odds Report Card
Your call
40%
chance the crowd gives $75,000 or higher, the rung at or below your price.
You see it above $75,000. Kalshi gives $75,000 or higher 40%. The options market says 35%.
If you are right, a Yes on $75,000 or higher at 40 cents pays $1.50 per $1.
Payouts are before fees and spread. Bet Check takes them off. Your calls stay in this browser.
11, settles Jan 1
Where will Ether end the year?
The crowd's even odds line for New Year's Day is $2,086. The options market's line a week earlier is $1,988. The biggest gap is at $2,000: crowd 59%, options 49%. Worth a second look.
LessonYear end bands are where people overpay for long shots. Compare the far tails with the options market before paying for a moonshot or a crash.
$2,086
Kalshi: crowd's even odds line, January 1
$1,988
Deribit options, even odds line, 2026-12-25
expires 2026-12-25 08:00 UTC
Above Crowd Options Gap $1,500 93% 88% +5 $1,750 81% 73% +8 $2,000 59% 49% +10 $2,250 33% 25% +9 $2,500 20% 11% +9 Kalshi settles on the CF Benchmarks index at midnight New York on January 1. The options expire December 25 at 08:00 UTC, a week earlier.
How these prices have paid out before
- Across all prices on Kalshi, Yes paid about 2 points more often than it was priced. The crowd leaned a little toward No.
Measured a week before settlement, on markets that settled in the last year. Sports left out. See the full Odds Report Card
Your call
59%
chance the crowd gives $2,000 or higher, the rung at or below your price.
You see it above $2,000. Kalshi gives $2,000 or higher 59%. The options market says 49%.
If you are right, a Yes on $2,000 or higher at 59 cents pays $0.69 per $1.
Payouts are before fees and spread. Bet Check takes them off. Your calls stay in this browser.
As of Nov 12, 1:54 PM New York.
How this tool works
How to read this
- 01
Make your own call under each question. Put in your number, your chance or your price, and the page shows your gap to the crowd and to the model, and what a Yes or No at today's price pays if you are right.
- 02
A model is a reference, not an answer. When the crowd sits far from it, one of them is about to be wrong, and the crowd has money on its side.
- 03
Read the book, not the last trade. On a quiet ladder the last price can be hours old. This page uses the middle of bid and ask where both exist.
- 04
Gaps close in one of two ways. The crowd moves to the model, or the data proves the crowd right. Which one happened last time is the lesson.
- 05
The free references live in known places. The Cleveland Fed for inflation, the Atlanta Fed for growth, the New York Fed for the yield curve, and Deribit for coin prices.
Crowd: Kalshi and Polymarket public feeds, middle of bid and ask. Models: Cleveland Fed, Atlanta Fed via FRED, New York Fed formula on FRED's spread, Deribit mark volatility. Educational only. It describes; it never tells you what to do.
How the calculation works
- 01Gap = the crowd's price minus the model's probability, in points. Positive means the crowd pays more than the model implies.
- 02Model probabilities come from a nowcast, a market implied curve or a range read, named on each question.
Data sources and update times
- Polymarket and Kalshi
- Crowd prices
- Page rebuilt every minute, feed cached 5 minutes
- Cleveland Fed, FRED, Deribit
- Inflation nowcast, rates history, option implied odds
- Cached 5 minutes