Prediction MarketsCrowd vs Model
Crowd vs Model
See what the bettors say next to what the best free model says, one question at a time.
Prediction markets put a price on the Fed, inflation, jobs, growth, a recession and crypto prices. This page puts each crowd number next to a free model. The Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast. The Atlanta Fed's growth tracker. The New York Fed's yield-curve recession odds. The options market for Bitcoin and Ether. Both platforms side by side, the gap in points, and a plain read of what the gap means. Refreshed every five minutes. Free, no sign-in.
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01 · settles Oct 14
How hot is the next inflation print, month over month?
Kalshi's middle sits at +0.44%. Polymarket's middle bucket is +0.5%. The model says +0.37%. The crowd leans hotter than the model. The crowd gives a print above the model's number 67%.
LessonThe nowcast tracks prices every business day. When the crowd sits above it, the crowd is paying for a surprise that the data does not show yet.
+0.44%
Kalshi: middle of the ladder
+0.5%
Polymarket: middle bucket
+0.37%
Cleveland Fed nowcast, September 2026
updated 09/11
open on Kalshiopen on PolymarketCleveland Fed inflation nowcast
02 · settles Oct 2
How many jobs will the next report show?
The crowd's middle sits at +69,444 jobs. The last three reports averaged +71,333. The crowd expects a slowdown. No free model forecasts the jobs number, so the recent pace is the reference.
LessonJobs reports move Bitcoin about twice as much as a normal hour. The market prices the number, then the revision changes it. Trade the rule, not the headline.
+69,444 jobs
Kalshi: middle of the ladder
+71,333 a month
Recent pace, last three reports
data through 2026-08-01
03 · settles Sep 16
What does the Fed do at its next meeting?
Kalshi says raise 0.25 at 80%. Polymarket says the same at 80%. The two crowds agree. No free model prices the Fed, so the second crowd is the check.
LessonWhen two crowds with different traders land within a point, the price is the market's best guess. The edge is in the data prints before the meeting, not on the day.
80%
Kalshi: raise 0.25
80%
Polymarket: raise 0.25
-
No free model
04 · settles Oct 30
How fast did the economy grow last quarter?
The crowd's middle sits at 2.5%. The model says 4.4%. The crowd gives a print at or above the model's number 17%. The crowd discounts the model.
LessonGDPNow misses by about a point early in a quarter and gets sharper as the data lands. A model is a reference, not an answer. The crowd knows that too.
2.5%
Kalshi: middle of the ladder
4.4%
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
Q3 2026 estimate
05 · settles Jan 31
Does a US recession start soon?
Kalshi says 4%. Polymarket says 7%. The yield-curve formula says 14% within twelve months. The model looks a year out; the markets only to December.
LessonThe yield curve has called most US recessions a year early, with false alarms. A market that settles in three months and a model that looks twelve months out are not the same bet.
4%
Kalshi: recession starts this year
7%
Polymarket: recession by year end
14%
New York Fed yield-curve formula, next 12 months
spread as of 2026-09-11
open on Kalshiopen on PolymarketFRED, 10-year minus 3-month spread +0.89 points
06 · settles Sep 18
Where will Bitcoin be at noon New York on September 18?
For September 18 the crowd's 50/50 line is $77,200. The options market puts it at $77,186. The two agree within three points at every line.
LessonThe options market is where the professionals price the same question. A gap of five points or more is worth a second look; most close by settlement.
$77,200
Polymarket: crowd's 50/50 line
$77,186
Deribit options, 50/50 line
expires 2026-09-18 08:00 UTC
Above Crowd Options Gap $72,000 95% 92% +2 $74,000 84% 82% +2 $76,000 65% 64% +1 $78,000 40% 40% 0 $80,000 20% 21% -2 $82,000 9% 10% -1 Polymarket settles on the Binance one-minute close at noon New York. The options expire at 08:00 UTC the same day, eight hours earlier.
07 · settles Sep 18
Where will Ether be at noon New York on September 18?
For September 18 the crowd's 50/50 line is $2,524. The options market puts it at $2,522. The two agree within three points at every line.
LessonThe options market is where the professionals price the same question. A gap of five points or more is worth a second look; most close by settlement.
$2,524
Polymarket: crowd's 50/50 line
$2,522
Deribit options, 50/50 line
expires 2026-09-18 08:00 UTC
Above Crowd Options Gap $2,400 80% 79% +1 $2,500 56% 56% +0 $2,600 31% 31% 0 $2,700 13% 15% -2 Polymarket settles on the Binance one-minute close at noon New York. The options expire at 08:00 UTC the same day, eight hours earlier.
08 · settles Sep 13
Where will Solana be at noon New York on September 13?
For September 13 the crowd's 50/50 line is $102. The options market puts it at $102. The biggest gap is at $100: crowd 88%, options 93%. Worth a second look.
LessonThe options market is where the professionals price the same question. A gap of five points or more is worth a second look; most close by settlement.
$102
Polymarket: crowd's 50/50 line
$102
Deribit options, 50/50 line
expires 2026-09-13 08:00 UTC
Above Crowd Options Gap $95 98% 100% -2 $100 88% 93% -5 $105 4% 1% +3 Polymarket settles on the Binance one-minute close at noon New York. The options expire at 08:00 UTC the same day, eight hours earlier.
09 · settles Sep 16
Where will XRP be at noon New York on September 16?
For September 16 the crowd's 50/50 line is $1.
LessonThe options market is where the professionals price the same question. A gap of five points or more is worth a second look; most close by settlement.
$1
Polymarket: crowd's 50/50 line
-
No free model
Above Crowd Options Gap $1 83% - - $1 31% - - Polymarket settles on the Binance one-minute close at noon New York. The options expire at 08:00 UTC the same day, eight hours earlier.
10 · settles Jan 1
Where will Bitcoin end the year?
The crowd's 50/50 line for New Year's Day is $78,517. The options market's line a week earlier is $76,650. The biggest gap is small: at $70,000 the crowd says 71% and the options 67%.
LessonYear-end bands are where long-shot love shows. Compare the far tails with the options market before paying for a moonshot or a crash.
$78,517
Kalshi: crowd's 50/50 line, January 1
$76,650
Deribit options, 50/50 line, 2026-12-25
expires 2026-12-25 08:00 UTC
Above Crowd Options Gap $55,000 89% 90% -1 $60,000 86% 85% +1 $65,000 80% 77% +3 $70,000 71% 67% +5 $75,000 59% 54% +5 $80,000 46% 42% +4 $85,000 35% 31% +4 $90,000 25% 22% +3 Kalshi settles on the CF Benchmarks index at midnight New York on January 1. The options expire December 25 at 08:00 UTC, a week earlier.
11 · settles Jan 1
Where will Ether end the year?
The crowd's 50/50 line for New Year's Day is $2,541. The options market's line a week earlier is $2,452. The biggest gap is at $2,250: crowd 70%, options 62%. Worth a second look.
LessonYear-end bands are where long-shot love shows. Compare the far tails with the options market before paying for a moonshot or a crash.
$2,541
Kalshi: crowd's 50/50 line, January 1
$2,452
Deribit options, 50/50 line, 2026-12-25
expires 2026-12-25 08:00 UTC
Above Crowd Options Gap $2,000 80% 75% +5 $2,250 70% 62% +8 $2,500 52% 47% +5 $2,750 39% 34% +5 $3,000 30% 24% +6 $3,250 20% 16% +4 Kalshi settles on the CF Benchmarks index at midnight New York on January 1. The options expire December 25 at 08:00 UTC, a week earlier.
As of Sep 12, 8:46 PM New York.
How to read this
- 01
A model is a reference, not an answer. When the crowd sits far from it, one of them is about to be wrong, and the crowd has money on its side.
- 02
Read the book, not the last trade. On a quiet ladder the last price can be hours old. This page uses the middle of bid and ask where both exist.
- 03
Gaps close in one of two ways: the crowd moves to the model, or the data proves the crowd right. Which one happened last time is the lesson.
- 04
The free references live in known places. The Cleveland Fed for inflation, the Atlanta Fed for growth, the New York Fed for the yield curve, and Deribit for coin prices.
Crowd: Kalshi and Polymarket public feeds, middle of bid and ask. Models: Cleveland Fed, Atlanta Fed via FRED, New York Fed formula on FRED's spread, Deribit mark volatility. Educational only. It describes; it never tells you what to do.