Prediction MarketsNews Day Risk Check
News Day Risk Check
See what the crowd expects and how big the usual move is, before the Fed, jobs and inflation news.
Three days a month move everything at once. The Fed decision, the jobs report and the inflation report. This page gets you ready the night before. It shows what the bettors expect the number to be, on Kalshi and Polymarket. It shows how far Bitcoin and Ether moved in the first hour on the last twelve of that day, and what open bets did after. It shows who is leaning which way going in. Funding, open bets, and the piles of borrowed bets within one usual move. And it shows what a small cushion from a Yes or No contract would cost next to a trade, with the cliff it has. It describes. It never tells you what to do.
Any level3 minwith Bet Checkfree, no account needed
Fed decision: Wed, Oct 28, 2:00 PM ET
The Fed sets the interest rate and says what comes next. The single biggest scheduled move of the month.
Going in: perp risk Low, $1.69B within 5% of being liquidated, typical funding 10.9% a year.
01
What does the crowd expect?
No market on this print yet. Kalshi usually lists one a few weeks before.
02
How big is the usual move?
1.47%
usual first hour, Bitcoin
median high-to-low range
0.70%
usual first hour move
median, up or down
2.77%
biggest first hour
2025-03-19
33%
closed the hour up
of the last 12 days
| Day | First hour | Hour range | Four hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | +0.36% | 1.44% | -0.66% |
| 2026-06-17 | -0.91% | 1.99% | -2.81% |
| 2026-04-29 | -0.90% | 1.75% | -0.33% |
| 2026-03-18 | -0.69% | 1.49% | -0.46% |
| 2026-01-28 | -0.16% | 0.81% | -0.18% |
| 2025-12-10 | +0.48% | 1.75% | +0.00% |
| 2025-10-29 | -0.97% | 2.59% | -0.22% |
| 2025-09-17 | -0.22% | 1.39% | +0.49% |
| 2025-07-30 | -1.10% | 1.33% | -0.41% |
| 2025-06-18 | -0.70% | 1.13% | +0.70% |
| 2025-05-07 | +0.28% | 1.05% | +0.83% |
| 2025-03-19 | +1.65% | 2.77% | +1.67% |
| Day | First hour | Hour range | Four hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | +0.22% | 2.29% | -0.93% |
| 2026-06-17 | -1.06% | 2.44% | -2.81% |
| 2026-04-29 | -1.97% | 2.93% | -1.36% |
| 2026-03-18 | -1.06% | 2.02% | -0.08% |
| 2026-01-28 | +0.04% | 0.95% | +0.10% |
| 2025-12-10 | +0.26% | 2.71% | -1.02% |
| 2025-10-29 | -2.43% | 4.54% | -1.47% |
| 2025-09-17 | +0.73% | 2.76% | +2.39% |
| 2025-07-30 | -1.75% | 2.26% | -1.12% |
| 2025-06-18 | -0.85% | 1.88% | +1.27% |
| 2025-05-07 | +0.57% | 1.61% | +0.35% |
| 2025-03-19 | +0.89% | 3.43% | +0.63% |
03
What does it mean for your position?
Your position
A $5,000 long at 10x puts up $500 of margin. The usual first hour move on this kind of day, 0.70%, is $35, or 7% of that margin, up or down.
Your liquidation sits about 8.8% from your entry at this leverage. One usual move covers 8% of that distance. Twice the usual move would not. The biggest first hour on record, 2.77% on 2025-03-19, would not have.
Holding through the print costs about $1 a day in funding at today's rate.
Liquidation uses the base maintenance margin, isolated. The exact price is in the Liquidation Danger Check. Your trade is remembered in this browser for the other perps tools.
04
Who is leaning which way going in?
Bitcoin$77,487
11%
longs pay, a year
+3.1%
open bets, four hours
risk low
$24M
longs within 1.5% below
would be closed out
$46M
shorts within 1.5% above
would be closed out
Ether$2,510
9%
longs pay, a year
+2.4%
open bets, four hours
risk low
$11M
longs within 1.5% below
would be closed out
$32M
shorts within 1.5% above
would be closed out
Piles are estimates from the Squeeze Map. They show where borrowed bets would be closed out if price moved there, within one usual first hour range. Price tends to move fast through a pile.
05
What would a cushion cost?
Polymarket lists the Bitcoin ladder for a day about a week before it. The cushion table appears then.
In plain words
- Kalshi says raise 0.25 at 78%. Polymarket says the same at 80%. The two crowds agree. No free model prices the Fed, so the second crowd is the check.
- On the last 12 Fed decision days, Bitcoin moved a median 0.70% in the first hour, inside a usual range of 1.47%. The biggest first hour was 2.77% on 2025-03-19. It closed the hour up 33% of the time.
- Going in on Bitcoin: longs pay 11% a year to stay in; open bets up 3.1% in four hours; $24M of long bets sit within one usual move below, $46M of shorts above.
Fed decision in 44d 12h, Wed, Oct 28, 2:00 PM ET.
Odds: Kalshi and Polymarket. Moves: OKX perpetual candles, history built 2026-09-13. Positioning: our own snapshots and the Squeeze Map. Educational only. It describes; it never tells you what to do.
How to read this
- 01
Put in your position. The page shows what a usual move does to your margin, how far your liquidation sits, what holding through the print costs in funding, and what a cushion costs for your size.
- 02
The crowd's number is what bettors expect the print to be. It moves in minutes when the number lands, so read it the night before, not the morning after.
- 03
The usual move is the first hour's high-to-low range on the last twelve of that day. Half the days were smaller, half bigger. The biggest one is listed so you know the tail.
- 04
Going in shows who is paying to stay in, whether open bets grew or shrank, and how much borrowed money sits within one usual move. Price tends to move fast through a pile.
- 05
The cushion table is a $10,000 position plus contracts that pay $1 past a strike one usual move away. It shows the cost, the cushion, and the cliff at the strike.
Odds from Kalshi and Polymarket. Moves from OKX perpetual candles. Positioning from our own snapshots and the Squeeze Map. Educational only. It describes; it never tells you what to do.