Prediction MarketsBefore the News
Before the News
See what the crowd expects and how big the usual move is, before the Fed, jobs and inflation news.
Three days a month move everything at once: the Fed decision, the jobs report and the inflation report. This page gets you ready the night before. It shows what the bettors expect the number to be, on Kalshi and Polymarket. It shows how far Bitcoin and Ether moved in the first hour on the last twelve of that day, and what open bets did after. It shows who is leaning which way going in: funding, open bets, and the piles of borrowed bets within one usual move. And it shows what a small cushion from a Yes or No contract would cost next to a trade, with the cliff it has. It describes; it never tells you what to do. Free, no sign-in.
Any level3 minwith Bet Checkfree · no sign-in
Jobs report: Fri, Oct 2, 8:30 AM ET
How many jobs the US added last month, and the unemployment rate. A big miss or beat moves everything.
Going in: perp risk Low, $1.41B within 5% of being liquidated, typical funding +10.9% a year.
01
What does the crowd expect?
No market on this print yet. Kalshi usually lists one a few weeks before.
02
How big is the usual move?
1.30%
usual first hour, Bitcoin
median high-to-low range
0.54%
usual first-hour move
median, up or down
2.92%
biggest first hour
2026-02-11
33%
closed the hour up
of the last 12 days
| Day | First hour | Hour range | Four hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | -2.48% | 2.66% | -2.19% |
| 2026-08-07 | +0.04% | 0.65% | -0.31% |
| 2026-07-02 | +0.57% | 1.30% | -0.24% |
| 2026-06-05 | -0.19% | 1.31% | -2.09% |
| 2026-05-08 | -0.88% | 1.20% | -0.46% |
| 2026-04-03 | -0.64% | 1.23% | -0.20% |
| 2026-03-06 | -1.56% | 2.49% | -2.61% |
| 2026-02-11 | +1.47% | 2.92% | -0.53% |
| 2026-01-09 | -0.05% | 0.80% | +0.58% |
| 2025-12-16 | -0.51% | 1.98% | -0.04% |
| 2025-11-20 | -0.49% | 2.34% | -5.21% |
| 2025-09-05 | +0.29% | 1.23% | -1.69% |
| Day | First hour | Hour range | Four hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | -3.17% | 3.82% | -3.00% |
| 2026-08-07 | -0.27% | 1.17% | -0.94% |
| 2026-07-02 | +1.11% | 2.47% | +1.54% |
| 2026-06-05 | +0.05% | 1.72% | -4.24% |
| 2026-05-08 | -0.86% | 1.39% | -0.17% |
| 2026-04-03 | -0.91% | 2.00% | -0.58% |
| 2026-03-06 | -1.98% | 3.25% | -3.71% |
| 2026-02-11 | +2.02% | 3.79% | -0.82% |
| 2026-01-09 | -0.12% | 1.13% | +0.41% |
| 2025-12-16 | -1.09% | 3.36% | -1.16% |
| 2025-11-20 | -0.32% | 2.91% | -6.49% |
| 2025-09-05 | +0.30% | 2.01% | -3.67% |
03
Who is leaning which way going in?
Bitcoin$77,264
9%
longs pay, a year
+0.2%
open bets, four hours
risk low
$46M
longs within 1.3% below
would be closed out
$24M
shorts within 1.3% above
would be closed out
Ether$2,521
8%
longs pay, a year
-0.0%
open bets, four hours
risk low
$92M
longs within 1.3% below
would be closed out
$3M
shorts within 1.3% above
would be closed out
Piles are estimates from the Squeeze Map: where borrowed bets would be closed out if price moved there, within one usual first-hour range. Price tends to move fast through a pile.
04
What would a cushion cost?
Polymarket lists the Bitcoin ladder for a day about a week before it. The cushion table appears then.
In plain words
- The crowd's middle sits at +69,444 jobs. The last three reports averaged +71,333. The crowd expects a slowdown. No free model forecasts the jobs number, so the recent pace is the reference.
- On the last 12 Jobs report days, Bitcoin moved a median 0.54% in the first hour, inside a usual range of 1.30%. The biggest first hour was 2.92% on 2026-02-11. It closed the hour up 33% of the time.
- Going in on Bitcoin: longs pay 9% a year to stay in; open bets up 0.2% in four hours; $46M of long bets sit within one usual move below, $24M of shorts above.
Jobs report in 19d 9h, Fri, Oct 2, 8:30 AM ET.
Odds: Kalshi and Polymarket. Moves: OKX perpetual candles, history built 2026-09-13. Positioning: our own snapshots and the Squeeze Map. Educational only. It describes; it never tells you what to do.
How to read this
- 01
The crowd's number is what bettors expect the print to be. It moves in minutes when the number lands, so read it the night before, not the morning after.
- 02
The usual move is the first hour's high-to-low range on the last twelve of that day. Half the days were smaller, half bigger. The biggest one is listed so you know the tail.
- 03
Going in shows who is paying to stay in, whether open bets grew or shrank, and how much borrowed money sits within one usual move. Price tends to move fast through a pile.
- 04
The cushion table is a $10,000 position plus contracts that pay $1 past a strike one usual move away. It shows the cost, the cushion, and the cliff at the strike.
Odds from Kalshi and Polymarket. Moves from OKX perpetual candles. Positioning from our own snapshots and the Squeeze Map. Educational only. It describes; it never tells you what to do.