as of Oct 24, 3:30 AM UTC
Crowd Gauge
Every perp market we track, from crypto to stocks, indices, gold and oil.
54
Balanced
From our own snapshots of those markets, taken every 15 minutes. Last read Oct 24, 3:30 AM UTC.
See how traders are positioned right now.
A live read on fear and greed across perp markets, based on where traders are actually putting their money.
What the market is telling us
On Bitcoin and Ether, $2.07B of buyers are close to being forced out by a small move, against $586M on the other side.
Longs pay 6% a year to stay in.
How we calculate it
The Crowd Gauge reads five things traders actually do. Who is paying funding. Whether leveraged positions are growing or shrinking. Which side is closer to liquidation. Which way prices have moved, and how fast. Updated every 10 minutes.
Yesterday
54Balanced+0 since
Last week
51Balanced+3 since
Last month
58Greed-4 since
Last 30 days, one point a day
What's driving the Crowd Gauge?
The score is built from four measures of real perp market positioning. Each is scored from fear to greed, with 50 as neutral. Speed is then used to adjust the final reading when markets are moving unusually quickly.
Funding
Who is paying to hold leveraged positions.
Longs pay 6% a year to stay in.
60 of 10035% of score
Open positions
Whether traders are adding or removing leverage.
Open bets down 1.9% on a red day: longs closed or closed out.
44 of 10025% of score
Liquidation risk
Which side has more money at risk if price moves sharply.
On Bitcoin and Ether, $2.07B of buyers are close to being forced out by a small move, against $586M on the other side.
78 of 10015% of score
Momentum
Whether major markets have been rising or falling.
The majors: -1.0% in 24 hours, -1.2% in 7 days.
43 of 10025% of score
Market speed
How quickly prices are moving.
Prices are moving slowly (1.8% a day), which softens the mood.
Adjusts the final score
How worried are prediction markets?
The average chance traders give to a recession being called and to the Fed raising rates next.
Worry Gauge
Prediction markets on the economy.
15
Calm
From live odds on Kalshi and Polymarket, read every 10 minutes. Last read Oct 24, 3:30 AM UTC.
The number is a plain average of the two odds above, so 25 means the crowd gives them a 25% chance on average. World markets are reported beside it, never counted in it, because a market resolving can move 40 points on its own.
What the Worry Gauge is made of
Recession odds the chance traders give to a recession being called
The market currently puts the chance of a recession at 22%..
22 of 100100% of score
Rate hike odds the chance traders give to the Fed raising rates next
The market currently puts the chance of the Fed raising rates next at 8%..
8 of 100100% of score
Reported, not counted in the score
World markets the biggest one day move across world markets
The biggest move today was 17 points, on NATO x Russia military clash by December 31.
How the Crowd Gauge works
The Crowd Gauge turns real perp market positioning into a score from 0 to 100. Lower readings lean towards fear, higher readings towards greed, and 50 is neutral.
The four main components
Funding has the biggest influence on the score. Open positions, liquidation risk and momentum are then added to show whether traders are adding leverage, which side is more exposed and which way major markets are moving.
How market speed is used
Market speed tells us how intense the move is. Slow markets have less effect on the final reading. When prices start moving unusually fast, the fear or greed already showing in the other data becomes more important.
How to read extreme scores
A very high or low reading means positioning has become unusually one sided. That does not mean the market is about to reverse. It means more traders are exposed if price suddenly moves the other way.
The gauge image updates automatically every 10 minutes. Copy the code below to embed it on your website with a link back to GnosisFi.
<a href="https://www.gnosisfi.com/en/crowd-gauge"><img src="https://www.gnosisfi.com/api/og/gauge" alt="GnosisFi Crowd Gauge" width="600" height="315"></a>
Educational only. Not financial advice. The Crowd Gauge describes current positioning. It is not a trading signal.