ToolsPrediction MarketsNews Day Risk Check
What happened after similar news?
See past price moves and what a move like that could mean for your trade.
CPI report: Thu, Dec 10, 8:30 AM ET
The monthly price report. It moves rates, the dollar, stocks and crypto in the first minutes.
Going in: perp risk Low, $1.01B within 5% of being liquidated, typical funding 10.9% a year.
01
What does it mean for your position
Your position
6%
of your margin moves in the usual first hour on this kind of day, up or down.
A $5,000 long at 10x puts up $500 of margin. The usual first hour move on this kind of day, 0.57%, is $28, or 6% of that margin, up or down.
Your liquidation sits about 8.8% from your entry at this leverage. One usual move covers 6% of that distance. Twice the usual move would not. The biggest first hour on record, 2.97% on 2026-09-11, would not have.
Holding through the print costs about $2 a day in funding at today's rate.
Liquidation uses the base maintenance margin, isolated. The exact price is in the Liquidation Danger Check. Your trade is remembered in this browser for the other perps tools.
02
What does the crowd expect
No market on this print yet. Kalshi usually lists one a few weeks ahead.
03
How big is the usual move
1.11%
usual first hour, Bitcoin
middle of the high to low range
0.57%
usual first hour
middle of them, up or down
2.97%
biggest first hour
2026-09-11
67%
closed the hour up
of the last 12 days
Bitcoin, usual
0.57%
Bitcoin, worst
2.97%
Ether, usual
0.75%
Ether, worst
4.62%
Past hours after this kind of news. Not a limit on the next one, and it says nothing about direction.
See every release day
| Day | First hour | Hour range | Four hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | +0.56% | 2.97% | +0.76% |
| 2026-08-12 | -0.71% | 0.91% | -1.31% |
| 2026-07-14 | +1.61% | 2.03% | +2.99% |
| 2026-06-10 | +0.65% | 1.43% | +1.85% |
| 2026-05-12 | -0.20% | 0.49% | -0.67% |
| 2026-04-10 | +0.19% | 0.58% | +0.84% |
| 2026-03-11 | +1.13% | 1.80% | +1.48% |
| 2026-02-13 | -0.04% | 0.79% | +2.42% |
| 2026-01-13 | +0.31% | 0.94% | +1.38% |
| 2025-12-18 | +1.01% | 2.13% | -1.99% |
| 2025-10-24 | +0.21% | 1.23% | -0.59% |
| 2025-09-11 | -0.58% | 0.99% | -0.03% |
| Day | First hour | Hour range | Four hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | +1.45% | 3.35% | +4.04% |
| 2026-08-12 | -0.78% | 1.08% | -1.44% |
| 2026-07-14 | +4.34% | 4.62% | +4.09% |
| 2026-06-10 | +0.72% | 1.37% | +1.47% |
| 2026-05-12 | -0.29% | 0.61% | -1.03% |
| 2026-04-10 | +0.14% | 0.97% | +1.09% |
| 2026-03-11 | +0.97% | 1.56% | +1.45% |
| 2026-02-13 | +0.34% | 0.96% | +4.51% |
| 2026-01-13 | +0.46% | 1.04% | +1.34% |
| 2025-12-18 | +2.48% | 3.55% | -2.35% |
| 2025-10-24 | +0.29% | 2.08% | -1.75% |
| 2025-09-11 | -1.49% | 3.01% | -1.39% |
04
Who is leaning which way going in
Bitcoin$71,738
11%
longs pay, a year
-0.7%
open bets, four hours
risk low
$148M
longs within 1.1% below
would be closed out
$10M
shorts within 1.1% above
would be closed out
Ether$2,016
10%
longs pay, a year
+1.0%
open bets, four hours
risk low
$4M
longs within 1.1% below
would be closed out
$14M
shorts within 1.1% above
would be closed out
Clusters are estimates from the Squeeze Map. They show where leveraged positions would be closed out if price moved there, within one usual first hour range. Price tends to move fast through a cluster.
05
What would a cushion cost
Polymarket lists the Bitcoin ladder for a day about a week before it. The cushion table appears then.
In plain words
- Kalshi's middle sits at -0.04%. The model says +0.14%. The crowd leans cooler than the model. The crowd gives a print above the model's number 8%.
- On the last 12 CPI report days, Bitcoin moved a median 0.57% in the first hour, inside a usual range of 1.11%. The biggest first hour was 2.97% on 2026-09-11. It closed the hour up 67% of the time.
- Going in on Bitcoin: longs pay 11% a year to stay in; open bets down 0.7% in four hours; $148M of long bets sit within one usual move below, $10M of shorts above.
CPI report in 27d 18h, Thu, Dec 10, 8:30 AM ET.
Odds: Kalshi and Polymarket. Moves: OKX perpetual candles, history built 2026-09-13. Positioning: our own snapshots and the Squeeze Map. Educational only. It describes; it never tells you what to do.
How this tool works
How to read this
- 01
Put in your position. The page shows what a usual move does to your margin, how far your liquidation sits, what holding through the print costs in funding, and what a cushion costs for your size.
- 02
The crowd's number is what bettors expect the print to be. It moves in minutes when the number lands, so read it the night before, not the morning after.
- 03
The usual move is the first hour's high-to-low range on the last twelve of that day. Half the days were smaller, half bigger. The biggest one is listed so you know the tail.
- 04
Going in shows who is paying to stay in, whether open bets grew or shrank, and how much borrowed money sits within one usual move. Price tends to move fast through a pile.
- 05
The cushion table is a $10,000 position plus contracts that pay $1 past a strike one usual move away. It shows the cost, the cushion, and the cliff at the strike.
Odds from Kalshi and Polymarket. Moves from OKX perpetual candles. Positioning from our own snapshots and the Squeeze Map. Educational only. It describes; it never tells you what to do.
How the calculation works
- 01Usual move = the median of the first hour's high to low range on the last twelve days of that report.
- 02Your position: liquidation from entry and leverage; cushion = margin minus what a usual move costs; funding = size times rate times hours.
Data sources and update times
- Kalshi and Polymarket
- What the crowd expects the print to be
- Page rebuilt every minute
- OKX candles, event history file
- The first hour's range on past report days
- Refreshed after each report day
- GnosisFi radar and Squeeze Map
- Funding, open bets and liquidation piles going in
- Every 15 minutes