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Complementary Outcomes

Complementary outcomes are two outcomes where one occurs if and only if the other does not, assuming the market's rules cover all possible results. In a straightforward binary market, YES and NO are complementary outcomes.

Why it matters to you

If the outcomes are truly complementary, their probabilities should conceptually account for the full set of possibilities. This relationship becomes important when analyzing pricing, arbitrage and probability consistency.

Terms that sit next to this one

YES Contract
NO Contract
Binary Market
Mutually Exclusive Outcomes
Probability Sum

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