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Trading Prediction Markets
Trading prediction markets means buying and selling positions based on how the trader expects the market's probability estimate to change or how they expect the event ultimately to resolve.
Why it matters to you
Prediction markets are not only about choosing an outcome and waiting. A trader might buy YES at: 42% New information arrives. The market reprices to: 67% The trader may choose to exit before the event is resolved. This means prediction market trading can involve both: forecasting the final outcome and forecasting how market expectations will change.
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