All termsPrediction Market FundamentalsStart here
Implied Probability
Implied probability is the probability suggested by a prediction market's price under the relevant contract and payout structure. For a binary contract that pays $1 if the outcome occurs: $0.63 ≈ 63% implied probability before considering market frictions and structural details.
Why it matters to you
Implied probability converts a market price into an intuitive way of thinking about expectations. But: 63% does not mean the event will happen. It means the market is currently pricing the outcome at approximately a 63% probability. A 63% event can still fail to happen.
Terms that sit next to this one
See the prediction markets front
Live odds, what settles this week and five tools.