Probability
Probability measures how likely an outcome is considered to be, usually expressed between 0% and 100%. A probability of 0% represents an outcome considered impossible under the assumptions being used, while 100% represents certainty.
Why it matters to you
Prediction markets are fundamentally markets for uncertainty. The objective is not simply to decide whether something will happen. The more useful question is: What probability should I assign to it happening? That shift from YES or NO thinking to probability thinking is fundamental to using prediction markets well.
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Live odds, what settles this week and five tools.