Probability Estimate
A probability estimate is your assessment of how likely an outcome is to occur based on the information, evidence and reasoning available to you.
Why it matters to you
Prediction market trading involves comparing two things: The probability implied by the market and your estimate of the probability. Suppose: Market price implies: 55% Your researched estimate: 65% That difference may represent an opportunity. But only if your estimate is well founded. Simply believing the market is wrong does not create an edge.
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