Confidence Range
A confidence range is a practical range of probabilities a forecaster considers plausible for an outcome rather than pretending one precise estimate is unquestionably correct.
Why it matters to you
A trader might estimate: Best estimate: 60% but believe a reasonable range is: 52% to 68% If the market trades at 58%, the apparent edge may not be very compelling. If the market trades at 35%, the disagreement is much larger. Thinking in ranges helps prevent false precision.
Terms that sit next to this one
See the prediction markets front
Live odds, what settles this week and five tools.