Fair Probability
Fair probability is the probability a trader believes most accurately reflects the likelihood of an outcome after considering the available evidence.
Why it matters to you
Fair probability gives the trader something to compare against the market. For example: Market: 48% Your fair probability: 60% If your analysis is sound, the market may be underpricing the YES outcome. The difficult part is not identifying the difference. It is determining whether your estimate is actually better than the market's.
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