Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is the probability of one event occurring given that another event has occurred or condition is known.
Why it matters to you
Many prediction market outcomes depend heavily on other events. For example: What is the probability BTC reaches $150,000 this year if the Federal Reserve cuts rates aggressively? That is different from simply asking: What is the probability BTC reaches $150,000 this year? Thinking conditionally helps traders understand how one event changes the probability of another.
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