Scenario Analysis
Scenario analysis evaluates several plausible future situations and considers how each would affect the probability of an outcome.
Why it matters to you
Instead of building a forecast around one expected future, traders can ask: What happens in the bullish scenario? What happens in the base case? What happens in the bearish scenario? Then assign probabilities to those scenarios. This can reduce dependence on a single narrative.
Terms that sit next to this one
See the prediction markets front
Live odds, what settles this week and five tools.