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Market Consensus
Market consensus describes the collective view reflected by current prediction market pricing.
Why it matters to you
If a market prices an outcome at 70%, that represents the current market estimate produced by participants trading against one another. But consensus can be wrong. The opportunity for a trader exists when they have good reason to believe the market price does not accurately reflect the true probability.
Terms that sit next to this one
Wisdom of Crowds
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Live odds, what settles this week and five tools.