All termsProbability, Pricing and Expected ValueWorth knowing
Subjective Probability
Subjective probability is a probability assigned to an outcome based on an individual's assessment of the available evidence rather than solely on a fixed statistical frequency.
Why it matters to you
Many prediction market questions concern unique future events. There may be no perfect historical dataset telling you the probability that a particular candidate wins an election or a company launches a product before a specific date. Traders therefore often combine data, base rates, current information and judgement to form an estimate.
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