All termsAdvanced Prediction Market AnalysisWorth knowing
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analysis examines how much a probability estimate changes when important assumptions are changed.
Why it matters to you
Suppose your estimate is: 65% But changing one uncertain assumption moves it to: 48% Your forecast is highly sensitive to that assumption. If changing the same assumption only moves the estimate from: 65% to 63% the forecast is less dependent on it. This helps traders understand where their uncertainty actually comes from.
Terms that sit next to this one
See the prediction markets front
Live odds, what settles this week and five tools.