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Cumulative Probability
Cumulative probability is the probability that an outcome falls at or below, or at or above, a specified threshold depending on how the event is defined.
Why it matters to you
Threshold prediction markets can sometimes be compared to understand the probability distribution implied by the market. For compatible thresholds: P(BTC > $200k) should not exceed: P(BTC > $150k) because exceeding $200,000 necessarily implies exceeding $150,000 under matching definitions and observation periods.
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