Probability Consistency
Probability consistency describes whether probabilities across related outcomes obey the logical relationships implied by their definitions.
Why it matters to you
Suppose two otherwise equivalent threshold markets say: BTC above $150,000 by date X: 40% BTC above $200,000 by date X: 45% If the contracts use compatible definitions and exceeding $200,000 necessarily satisfies the $150,000 condition, the prices appear logically inconsistent. The harder threshold should not have a higher probability than the easier threshold. That inconsistency deserves investigation.
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