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Probability Bucket
A probability bucket groups forecasts with similar probability estimates so their performance can be evaluated together. For example: 50% to 59% 60% to 69% 70% to 79% 80% to 89%
Why it matters to you
If events you repeatedly estimate around 70% occur only around half the time over a meaningful sample, that may indicate your forecasting process is overconfident or poorly calibrated. Probability buckets make calibration easier to inspect.
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