Forecast Track Record
A forecast track record is a historical record of probability estimates and their eventual outcomes.
Why it matters to you
Recording forecasts allows traders to evaluate whether they are: well calibrated, consistently overconfident, better in particular market categories, or repeatedly making the same analytical mistakes. Without records, it is extremely easy to remember successful predictions more clearly than unsuccessful ones.
Terms that sit next to this one
See the prediction markets front
Live odds, what settles this week and five tools.