Skip to content

Prediction Market Arbitrage

Prediction market arbitrage is the attempt to exploit inconsistent prices between prediction contracts whose economic outcomes are sufficiently related.

Why it matters to you

An apparent arbitrage may exist when combinations of contracts imply probabilities that cannot all logically be correct at the same time. But traders must confirm that the contracts genuinely match in: wording, timing, resolution criteria, settlement, and underlying event definition.

Terms that sit next to this one

See the prediction markets front

Live odds, what settles this week and five tools.