Resulting
Resulting is the habit of judging whether a decision was good or bad primarily from its eventual outcome.
Why it matters to you
If a 20% event happens, that does not mean estimating it at 20% was necessarily wrong. Likewise, a 90% event failing does not automatically mean the original estimate was unreasonable. Prediction markets require thinking in distributions of outcomes rather than expecting every high probability event to occur.
Terms that sit next to this one
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Live odds, what settles this week and five tools.